A trip around HD Shipyard + Xi'an AeroEngine PLC

Recently, a bunch of new photos have been released from the HuDong shipyard. There have been a lot of activities for Pakistani Navy, because F-22P hulls are making great process. 252 looks like it will be ready for sea trial soon. 253 have been launched. You can see them below:
First, 252 and the closed-up look to sensors + weapons on it.





Second, pictures of the newly launched 253.




We also saw new photos of the 3rd 054A from HD Shipyard. Not much to say, probably has a while to go until sea trials.




On a side note, we've seen a video of a CCTV's broadcast on 054A (since it's on the Somalia mission right now). It was actually pretty extensive. They showed the ship under construction, photos taken from top and also inside the ship. They interviewed the person in charge of the Huangpu shipyard. It was quite obvious that they spent a lot of money buying the tools and machinery needed to ensure quality of 054A.

The other thing that was interesting from today is when I read the securities report of the Xi'an AeroEngine PLC (You can find a copy of it here). In case you don't know, XAE is in charge of producing WS-9 for JH-7A and also developing the new generation WS-15 engine. The interesting part is that the report discussed the WS-10A and QC-280 projects (not something we really expected out of XAE). In an interview with XAE, we find that about 1/3 of the parts for WS-10A are produced in XAE (even though the assembly is done at Shenyang Liming). It was interesting to find that the parts produced by XAE for the WS-10A is said to be doubling this year (so maybe WS-10A production is doubling?). The report also said that this is done to allow engine conversion on front line fighter jets (like J-10/11), which was a little unexpected.

I'm guessing nobody has ever heard of the QC/D-280 project before. Well, it is supposed to the fully localized version of UGT-25000 (aka DN-80). Back when 8 UGT-25000 was first exported to China in 1990s, China also got the license for manufacturing. Now, it appears that China has fully mastered the technology for it and can build gas turbine without Ukrainian help. It was already tested on 169. Now, it seems that QC-280 has successfully passed the tests, so it is declared ready for mass production. The report says that 20 QC/D-280 will be produced every year. That does not mean China will be building 5 destroyers or 10 (depending on the propulsion configuration). In fact, I'd think QD-280 (the electricity generator version) will take up the bulk of that. However, it is clear that QC-280 will be the gas turbine used for future Chinese destroyers.

Latest pictures from Dalian

I've actually had these photos for a few days, but have been too busy to post them. They've been posted in other places already, but I thought I could offer some of my thoughts. Here are the photos (The final one is a rough blueprint of Varyag):





The first thing I noticed was that there are 3 large cranes around Varyag, which means a lot of resources could be devoted to do the intended work. We also see some scaffolding around the island, which should allow workers to access the flight deck and do their work. The entire right side of the flight deck seem to be open. That's where the VLS for shipwreck missiles used to be located. Looks like a lot of work is going to be done there. One of the past theories is that an engine could lowered through there to provide for its propulsion. I guess we will just have to wait and see what they intend to do with it. In the first picture, you can see a circled block there. A lot of people are speculating that it could be a catapult, I think its dimensions don't seem to fit that theory. Again, another thing to watch out for. The other interesting thing is that the huge containers on the flight deck of the Varyag from the move have all been removed now. Maybe all of that stuff have already been installed. If that's the case, then they really have been working pretty fast on it.

That's about all from Varyag front, I'm sure we will get more photos soon.

We also some new photos of the submarine tenders out of the Guangzhou shipyard this week and they are as follows:

The story behind the stories for Varyag

A couple of weeks ago, we saw Varyag move from its old location to dry dock for some works. From all of the stuff that we've seen on the flight deck of Varyag in the recent photo, it's clear that they are going to do a lot of work on it. This move was supposed to happen sometimes last year, but China did not want to scare the world with such a show a military ambition (especially when it was so close to the Olympics). It has for the past year prepared the rest of the world for a Chinese aircraft carrier by telling various countries around the world that China should be allowed one. My personal opinion is that China should just tell the rest of the world "I have the 3rd largest economy, I'm one of the Permanent 5 on UNSC, I have the largest population and I need a couple of carriers". Instead, it's doing the same thing that it did before sending fleet over to Somalia. Does anyone think that countries that felt threatening about Chinese naval power would feel any safer after listening to the way it explained itself?

Having mentioned that, the next part that I want to address is Ukraine's role in Varyag. For many years, I've read people talking about how Ukraine got duped and tricked by China in the entire Varyag affair. I really think that's just nonsense. I think Ukraine knew exactly what was going to happen to Varyag when it was purchased. That is why it hasn't lodged any kind of complaints to China about this ship. Ukraine did want to receive heat from other countries for its role in China's aircraft carrier program, so it went along with the entire floating casino story line. Ukraine for the past few years have been in a competition with Russia for military exports to the Chinese market. In the past year, Ukraine just signed a new defense cooperation agreement with China, so the military cooperation between the two countries is growing. It is beating Russia in many contracts by offering lower rates and better services. It's kind of interesting to compare China's dealings with Ukraine and India's dealings with Russia. Both Russia and Ukraine had a rotting aircraft carrier that it had no real use for (Varyag and Admiral Gorshkov). Russia offered Admiral Gorshkov to India for free, but also forced India to buy its naval fighters and the continuing escalation cost of refitting the ship. Ukraine offered Varyag to China for $20 million, let China do its own refurbishing, is assisting China in its naval fighter development and also offering to help China train its pilots. You may be trying to figure out what I'm talking about, so I will go through with my theory. We know that Ukraine does not have the capability to produce naval fighters that it can sell to China for carrier. So, it is helping China and snubbing the Russians by selling China its T-10K prototype, an earlier prototype for Su-33. We know from Kanwa interviews that Ukraine is very much involved with China's flanker fleet through the sales of missiles like R-27, helping PLAAF with maintenance and overhaul of flankers. If China is working on its own naval flanker, then Ukraine is likely standing to gain through the sales of certain naval fighter specific subsystems, missiles and servicing agreements (although whether this actually happens remains to be seen). Ukraine also has Nikita, which is the only aircraft carrier training center from the Soviet times. As we know, the Russians are not really spending that much time training and operating its su-33 fleet and is also looking to build its own aircraft carrier training center. As it currently stands, the Ukrainians are not getting a lot of business at Nikita. On the other hand, PLAN is really looking to actively train enough pilots for 2 air wings. The latest news from Russia indicates that Ukraine has signed an agreement with China to lease this facility for its naval aviation school. I can imagine Ukraine will also be selling other naval training software/tools to China. There are also other areas that I think Ukraine can profit from cooperating with China on aircraft carrier. It can possibly sell the propulsion system for Varyag or future aircraft carrier (latest Chinese DDGs already use Zorya gas turbines). And since China is building escort ships for the carrier fleet, these ships will also need to purchase gas turbines from Ukraine. Aside from propulsion system, China could also be interested in other carrier subsystems that Ukraine produced for aircraft carriers in Soviet time. And finally, Ukraine is also supplying engines for the L-15 trainer and possibly supplying engines for China's new 10 ton helicopter. These two may become part of the air wing on future aircraft carriers, so Ukraine is potentially expanding markets for its aerospace engine factories. I think that this is a very beneficial relationship overall. Ukraine has certain aircraft carrier related technology and experience that it would otherwise have no customers for. China has the need for these technology and experience, but do not have access to many other sellers (actually, Russia is its only other choice). So generally, I think this deal is a win-win for both side, whereas the Admiral Gorshkov fiasco has really only benefited the Russians. The Russians managed to get rid of their rotting hunk of steel, received a lot of work for a shipyard that is not getting much business elsewhere, found a market for its Mig-29K fighters + Ka-31 helicopters and got paid by India to rebuild its carrier suppliers base/work force. The last two point are very important since these suppliers and fighters/heicopters will be needed for future aircraft carriers for Russian Navy and even India's indigenous carriers. The Ukrainians really needed to sell their rotting hunk of steel, didn't have the naval shipbuilding ambitions of Russia and also needed to sell whatever carrier technology/service that it still has before their shelf life runs its course. Therefore, it didn't mind that China is doing its own refurbishing/upgrades and assisting China in naval aviation. China probably benefited even more, because it got all the technology and carrier building experience it needed without having to deal with or rely on the Russians. Of course,

As an aside, the entire IL-76 saga was similar to this. China and Russia got into a huge disagreement over the pricing and Russia claimed that the plant in Tashkent is not able to produce the IL-76s needed. After Uzbekistan realized that Russia is taking away all remaining business by building a plant in Russia, it decided to negotiate directly with China to try to sell the blueprints, the technology and the assembly line to China. As it turned out, due to certain special interest groups, China overplayed its hand in the entire matter (maybe due to confidence from Varyag deal) and blew the negotiation with Uzbekistan. Now, it is forced to renegotiate with the Russians for the upgraded IL-476. I thought it's interesting how you can use the competition between Russia and other former Soviet Republics to get the best deal. Obviously, a lot of what I said here are my opinion, but I feel a lot of it is pretty close to the truth.

More 054A in HP

I kind of dropped the ball recently by not posting the 054A that just got launched at the HuDong shipyard. I will post a few pictures below, but I just got hold of the first picture of the 4th 054A from HP shipyard. Remember, the 3rd one only got launched a couple of months ago, so this is really pretty good progress.

Since this one is under construction, we can conjecture that HD shipyard also has another one also under construction. Which means, we are basically getting our 2nd batch of 4 054As this year. It has slight modifications to the first 4, but all the major sensors and weapon systems look the same. Which makes sense, because I think 054A pretty much satisfies all of the requirements of PLAN right now. It can obviously be improved, but China finally has a ship that is amongst the elites in the world in its class (Probably, the most comparable ship to it would be the Formidable class).

Anyhow, some pictures of 054A that just got launched a few days ago at HD shipyard. It was actually pretty impressive how fast it got launched. Most of the Chinese forums speculate that the 3rd 054A from HD and HP shipyard will get the numbers 569 and 571, which means they will be joining the SSF. I guess NSF is not exactly on top of the priority list these days.

ASBM - follow up

The original entry has received quite a bit of fanfare, so I thought I would push some additional thoughts across + look at some of the questions being posed. Thanks to the everyone who helped me with this. I do apologize for not getting to this earlier, because I have been quite busy recently.

The first thing I want to look at are the related parts from the DoD report. Page 21 has a section on ASBM. Page 26 has a section on recon/navigational satellites. It recognizes that China is working on this system and that it is also launching many reconnaissance satellites to help improve with identify, track and engage military target deep in the Pacific Ocean. We will explore C4ISR later on it this entry, but it's important to note that Pentagon is taking this threat seriously. Whether or not PLAN really does have something deployed currently or in 5 years, USN will have to prepare with having to face ASBM as one of the possibility. This could lead to changes in procurement (more ships with SM-3), refitting existing ships with SM-3 and maneuvers/path taken by a carrier group into the zone of conflict.

One of the questions I was asked was whether or not this has been tested. This really is not a question that I would have answer to. Generally speaking, we do not see important weapon systems until years after they are deployed. For missiles, they have specific testing sites that they go to for testing and target ships (basically 022 with a huge radar deflector as shown below) that they use for anti-ship missiles.

However, we normally don't get pictures or videos of testing from these tests. In some cases, we read about the tests later on, but there are no news releases like the ones we see out of China Lake. According to the original blog writer (I can't confirm this), the person in charge of researching ASBM guidance wrote a paper in 2000 called "Research into MaRV attacking slow-moving targets". And according to a recent interview with naval base designer, China has acquired the ability to strike moving targets with ballistic missile. In my opinion, they would not make this kind of statement unless they have test-fired the missile.

I also noticed numerous people wondering about why China does not just continue to develop supersonic cruise missiles. I think the issue is many people have bought into the fallacy that supersonic missiles like Yakhont, Sunburn and Club are carrier-killers. Without going into the extremely deep discussion over the pros and cons of supersonic missile, I think it's quite clear that PLAN does not think these supersonic missiles alone can defeat the air defense umbrella of a USN CVBG. They did not seem overly pleased with the technical problems endured in the deployment of Club missile. It has been named as impossible to stop by many reports out there, but China did not even do live firing of the missile on its new kilo submarines until 2008. In fact, PLAN has such high regard for the "Sizzler" that it is not using it on any other platforms. In the same regard, the development of 3M80MBE (improved Sunburn) also took longer than expected. The increased range on it compared to 3M80E was more due to the cruising altitude than motor/fuel improvement. Even though they purchased about 500 Sunburn missiles, they have only equipped it on the Sovs. In conclusion, the much hyped supersonic missiles by themselves are not carrier killers. The primary weapon used by PLAN right now is YJ-83 (which is subsonic with supersonic terminal phase). It is basically equipped on all of the modern large surface ships, fighter-bombers and 022 FACs. In order to defeat the Aegis umbrella, PLAN would have to carry out a well planned multi-axis attack from different platforms.

As shown in the INS Hanit hit, the best way to penetrate a modern AD is to catch it off-guard. I don't think PLAN could ever hope to catch a USN Carrier Group in that scenario with Anti-ship cruise missiles, because the entire system will be turned on by the time the ships enters the engagement area of YJ-83. If C4ISR network needed for ASBM is developed (this will be discussed later), then this would increase the engagement envelope for PLAN. It would either force the US Carrier group to turn its air defense system on earlier (which would basically expose its positioning) or it could catch the carrier group completely off guard. If this ASBM system works as we talked about, USN would be forced to change its tactics in coming into the warzone. The other part that is special about ASBM is that it's just a lot harder to score hard kills than cruise missiles. I know that SM-3 has many successful tests, but it has never really tested against something with the flight characteristics of ASBM variant of DF-21. I'm not saying that it can't intercept it, but we don't know what it's success rate would be. I'm sure a salvo of DF-21 coming would pose more threats than a salvo of modern Anti-ship cruise missile. I have looked at the much talked Kilo/Club and Sov/Sunburn systems as over-hyped, but I do believe this ASBM system could be worth the attention given to it.

Another major question that came up was the process of searching for, finding and getting accurate enough data for targeting purpose. It is quite clear that OTH radar would not be able to do all of that by itself. Therefore, other parts of the C4ISR would have to do the identification after given a general area to look into. When it comes to identification, the possibilities include satellites, UAV/MPAs and SURTASS ships. There are pros and cons to each identification tool.

The first one to look at is reconnaissance satellites. In the original blog, the author stated that carrier groups can be identified, because it is likely to maneuver in completely different pattern than normal shipping groups. That actually is not true from my discussion with Jonesy, who explained to me that USN carrier group will make deceptive maneuvers so that it will not be easily identified at the sea. After all, a large group of ships moving straight toward battle zone at 30 knots would not only be spotted by satellites but also by a ship equipped with a modern navigational radar. Therefore, in order to identify the target, China would need satellites that have 10 m resolution and also have data relay set up to receive all the imaging data from the satellites. In a way, this would almost eliminate the possibility of using micro-EO satellites, because of the resolution requirements of the imager and the power requirements associated with focusing in on certain altitudes, storing that information and transmitting it back to ground station for data-processing. Going through Sinodefence, you will notice that Ziyuan 2 satellites and Yaogan satellites both have the resolution needed to identify a carrier from up top. The problem is that a large portion of these satellites are on sun-synchronous orbits, meaning that they pass by a spot once a day. Considering that these 2 series only have 9 satellites, it could only guarantee that satellite passes by one spot every 2 to 3 hours. According to SDF, the field of view for SAR radar of Yaogan satellite is 40 km at high resolution mode. This means, if the ship moves 20 km after the initial detection by OTH radar, it could be outside the FOV of satellite's radar. I'm assuming here that USN knows the orbital patterns of Chinese satellites and would take a path that would minimize the chance of detection by those satellites. Of course, the solution to this problem is to simply launch more reconnaissance satellites capable of achieving high resolution. I think that satellites is a reasonable solution for IDing carrier groups, but it is vulnerable to anti-satellite weapons like SM-3.

The second one to look at is aerial assets like UAVs and MPAs. For the latter, we are talking about Y-8 special missions planes. Unfortunately, China has very small number of these type of planes (in single digits) and that is unlikely to change anytime soon. Even though the shipbuilding industry has been able to crank out ships at rapid speed, the aerospace industry can barely assemble a few Y-8 platforms every year. In any war scenario, the MPAs are unlikely to play a major role in identifying carrier groups that are still 1500 km+ away from the coast. UAVs are also currently small in numbers for China, but this will likely change in the next few years. As discussed in the previous blog entry, we are seeing both HALE and MALE UAVs getting developed by CAC. I don't know what the production rate for these UAVs will be in the future, but they should be sufficient for mass usage in war time. UAVs can be used to identify a carrier group in two ways:

1. By actually using its sensors to visually identify ships in the carrier group
2. Identify a carrier group indirectly if it is shot down by an asset from the carrier group

The first one is quite obvious and is the preferred way of identifying the carrier group. It will be able to get the targeting data of the carrier itself and be able to provide mid-course correction after the ASBM is launched. If most of the systems on the carrier group are not fully active, then the carrier group might not even know that it has been found and targeted. A carrier group is at most danger in this scenario. In the second scenario, the identification part would be achieved, but PLA still would not know the exact location of the carrier. Once the carrier group knows that it has been detected, it will turn its system to active, so that an attacking missile would have to face a prepared air defense. Once this happens, it will be a lot easier for other recon UAVs and assets to identify the coordinate of the carrier. Clearly, UAVs would be an extremely good way of identifying the carrier group, but many UAVs are needed to maintain patrol over the area scanned by the OTH radar. It is also imperative for the UAV to have low signature, which would make it hard to detect by a carrier group with air defense not fully active.

The final one I did not even realize in the first post. Jonesy brought up the idea of using SURTASS to detect a rapidly moving carrier group. A ship equipped with SURTASS can detect ships from hundreds of nm away. The range and power of a SURTASS ship would allow it to operate outside the coverage of the carrier group. The problem is that I don't think China has anything like SURTASS right now. And I don't think anything like it is going to be on the horizon either, so I'm not sure how plausible this solution it is. So, the pro is that a SURTASS ship would be able to provide accurate targeting data while staying out of harm's way. The con is that it might not be a poassibility for the near future. However, China has surprised me many times with new ship types.

And finally, I think that some people fail to understand the implication of this system. As mentioned above, this system would either force USN to turn on its system fully-on at an earlier point or leave itself really vulnerable to a long range attack. Even with its system fully-on, a salvo of ASBM would pose far more danger than a salvo of ASCM. As mentioned above, this would change the way that USN would plan the way that it comes into the Taiwan conflict. It could also possibly force the carrier to operate much further out, which would reduce the effectiveness of a carrier group. However, the biggest implication would be that China has actually managed to develop ASBM. For the longest time, the biggest objection I heard regarding to an ASBM system is how can it possibly have the accuracy of finding and hitting a moving target. I think that if this system is put in service, then they must have developed the seeker and the maneuver technology needed for this task. And if these technical problems with ASBM itself are solved, we can look forward to other types of ASBM like ones launched from strike aircraft, ships or even submarines. There are many possibilities. It is also possible that future versions of ASBM would contain not only a warhead but also decoys. The important part to remember is that this system either have not been deployed yet or is at the very early stage of its existence. The system will likely improve and also evolve into other forms in the future. As a result of this, BMD on ships against ASBM will also have to continuously improve in the future.

These are some of my additional thoughts on this topic. One of my goals is to get others to also think about the implications of this system. I'd like to again thank everyone who has helped me with this topic.

J-11BS finally

We finally have pictures of J-11BS coming out. I just got these yesterday and it's quite exciting actually. If you look at the cockpit, you can see the tandem seating like that of Su-30mkk. A lot of people have said that this is supposed to be Chinese version of Su-30. I'd have to look at them side by side, but my guess is that it would either be same in dimension to Su-30 or Su-27ubk (likely the former). You can see that it has black nose and black engine nozzle just like the photos we got in early 2007 of J-11B testing at CFTE. I believe the serial number for this is 532 compared to 52x for the J-11Bs.

Back then, people thought that black engine nozzle and nose indicate the usage of domestic engine (WS-10A) and radar. I think it's good to compare them a little more closely. The pictures below do a good job of showing the petals on the engine nozzles of Ws-10A and AL-31 (first one is WS-10A and second is AL-31). If you look at the original picture, the petals on the J-11BS does look like that of WS-10A. You see that the petals are one on top of the next rather than the pattern seen on AL-31FN in the second photo. I will stop there, since I don't think I'm qualified to comment on any more than this.



The other interesting part is that this is 532, so this is pretty much the second J-11BS sent to CFTE for testing. We received news a while ago, that one of the J-11BS crashed in flight testing, that probably was 531. Regardless, it seems like SAC is stuck working on different variants of flankers. J-11BS is basically China's version of F-15E, a long range strike aircraft with good A2A combat capabilities. It is the heavy, multi-role aircraft that PLAAF have been waiting for a while for. The next plane we are expected to see from SAC is J-11BJ, aka the naval flanker.

2nd PLAN fleet sent to Somalia + F-22P

The mission for the first fleet has ended and the second fleet is on the way there. As mentioned in this Xinhua article, the ships have already left on Thursday. The replenishment ship from the first fleet will remain there, but the destroyers are coming back. The second fleet (also coming from South Sea Fleet) will consist of the much traveled 051B. This ship is 154 m long, 17.1 wide and has displacement of 6580 ton. It is by far the most traveled of the PLAN ships, having made over 100,000 nm of travel around the world, here are some photos:



The other part of the fleet is the very new 570, which is one of the two 054As currently serving in South Sea Fleet. We've also received some of the statistics on 054A. The ship is 134 m long, 16 m wide and has displacement of 4053 ton. Here are some of its photos as it leaves China:




The other thing is that we've got some new photos of the 3rd 054A under construction from HuDong shipyard (6th overall). It's finally taking shape, looks like it might be launched in a couple of months.




Also, we have 252 getting fitted with FM-90N finally, here are some of the photos of the 2nd F-22P. I think it's going to start sea trial soon.