Response to recent UPI articles by Andrei Chang

For those who don't know, Andrei Chang is also known as Andrei Pinkov, Yihang Chang or simply PKF in different circles. He is the chief editor of Kanwa Defense. He does follow PLA very closely and have numerous good sources, but is also overly reliant on these sources (mostly Russian ones). Recently, I've noticed that he has started posting on United Press International, so I decided to critique his articles a little bit.

Analysis: China shows off new hardware

Genernally, there is nothing too new here. I won't comment on his political views, but believe that the bigger reason for the unveiling on these new weapon systems is part of the effort to be more transparent for Western countries.

Analysis: Chinese navy starts long march

Again, nothing new here that he hasn't posted before. It's interested he has finally given up on his initial estimates that 094 has 16 launching tubes and 6 warhead per JL-2. As for this next SSBN with 24 launch tubes, I really wouldn't trust anything they post on TV regarding something so strategical at this point. As for his estimates of 2 indigenous carriers, it does seem to agree with most Chinese sources at this point.

Analysis: Sino-Russia military ties
The entire thesis of his article seems to be based on this:
"China has also complained about the quality of Russian weapons. Russian dealers, on the other hand, are upset about blatant Chinese imitations of their products, built from designs supplied in the understanding that the weapons were to be purchased."
Well, there is no question that China has not been pleased with some of the recent weapon systems, since it's requirements are much higher now.

First regarding this IL-76 contract, the Russians are asking for more money despite needing more time to complete this contract? They are claiming that they will loose money if they fulfill this contract. Well, why did you sign the contract in the first place? It's not China's fault that you didn't look over the Tashkent plant. As for their offer of PS-90A, well that should be offered as compensation for the delay in fulfillment rather than increasing the cost of contract. Are the Russians really stunned that China can live without their military export?

As for the quality of imported equipments, it's been a belief for a long time that many of the imported systems simply don't match the specs given by the Russians. For example, AL-31F don't last anywhere close to 1000 hours before needing overhaul.

As for this part:
"However, the contract was suspended after 95 China-made J11A were completed last year. Russia reportedly backed out of the deal due to technical reservations. "
It was China that stopped the contract, because J-11A simply no longer matched the requirements.

"n the mid-1990s China asked the Russian Phazotron Radar Design Bureau to help the PLAAF to upgrade their F8II fighters. For this purpose, China purchased two ZHUK-8II airborne radars from Phazotron. Certainly many technical documents were transferred, as the Chinese had promised to buy at least 100 of the radar devices. But the Chinese never came back. Two years ago the new Chinese F8IIM fighter was released with the new “indigenous multifunction radar.”"
As for this theory about China copying Phazotron radar, the J-8H which was certified in the 90s already had KLJ-1 radar, which reported finished development as early as 1989. The follow up radar 1492 was also developed before J-8F entered service in early 2000s. Whether or not the export fighter uses a clone is another story, but the domestic versions were definitely at works before Phazotron ever supplied us radars. Same with J-10 and its first radar KLJ-3, that one was ready when J-10 started testing in 2002. It was shown in Zhuhai air show in the late 90s. Considering Zhemchug wasn't imported for evaluation until early 2000s, that's definitely after KLJ-3 was already developed. Frankly, Phazotron is just feeling the sour grapes after not getting the export contract they wanted. Considering their much hyped Zhuk-MSE and Zhuk-ME didn't become ready to equip fighters until the last couple of years, their claims of China copying is too premature (especially since the "cloned radar" entered service earlier).

As for this claim "Along with the Type 956E/EM missile destroyer, the Chinese navy received subsystems from Russia including the Fregat M2EM 3D radar and MR-90 tracking radar and sonar. The same radar system has been seen on China’s domestic Type 054A missile frigate (FFG)."
For the "Fregat clone" Sea Eagle search radar, what the Russians and Andrei do not seem to realize is that this series has been in service since the 90s with DDG 167. Although the earlier version is a single faced radar, one can clearly see the similarities between that radar and the current Sea Eagle. If you look closely at the rotating arms and radar faces (Sea Eagle has far more rows of antenna), you can see clear difference in both part. Looking at some recent Chinese sales brochure, the latest version of Sea Eagle seems to be operating on H band, compared to E band for top plate and C band for earlier Sea Eagle. In fact, a recent article says that the recent Sea Eagle radar is the culmination of a 10 year project going through the most intensive testing procedure of any Chinese naval radar.

As for MR-90 tracking radar, there are less information on this, but looking similar in the exterior does not mean it works the same way on the inside. The sensors used on 054A has higher requirements than their Russian counterparts. The Russians are simply over flattering themselves to assume that China would copy the systems as they are.

More on cooperation with Pakistan

So, I got some recent articles on China and Pakistan with Kanwa.
First, this is a recent picture of F-22P from Hudong. (Right click + view image to see the cut off part)

And this is the Kanwa article regarding to F-22P.

It basically says that the construction started in October of last year. At the moment, Pakistan isn't planning to purchasing anymore F-22P. The reason that the first F-22P is taking 4 year is because there is a lot of changes from Jiangwei II for this ship. We've already seen AK-630M and AK-176M being installed on F-22P, I'm guessing there will be changes in ECM/ESM from Jiangwei II.
As for future purchases, I think it's pretty clear 054 series is where PN would want to go at the moment. I'm still waiting for the follow ups to the first 4 054As to see what the upgraded 054A and future 054B will look like. It appears that unlike first suspected, each 054/054A uses 4 16 PA6 STC diesel engines from SEMT Pielstick. At least it makes sense that it uses a more power engine than the one Lafayette uses to power a larger ship in 054A.

The other news from kanwa is on J-10/Y-8 AEW. It looks like PAF looks at these two as long term investment. At current time, it's focused on JF-17 and Erieye. Although funding could reduce the number of Erieye to even less than 7. For Y-8 AEW, PAF hopes to eventually use lessons here to develop it's own AEW platform. Speaking of which, got a recent picture of it.

More on Z-8

It appears that I mmight have ade a mistake with the classification of the naval version of Z-8. Huitong is calling it Z-8K, here is a photo of the SAR version with FLIR and search light.

It was mentionned by Huitong as a naval version of Z-8A, although I'm pretty sure he is wrong about that part. You can distinguish Z-8A and Z-8F from the intake opening. Z-8A has all the intakes in the facing front all in front of the rotor. There is a hump for the openings. Z-8F on the other hand have the openings one facing front and 2 on the sides. Anyhow, I found a nice specification picture of Z-8F. Note, it lists the basic specs, the specs under maximum takeoff of 13 tonne and the specs using the new PW engine.

according to this, many changes have been made including installing anti-sand components to improve performance in different terrain, using composite blades instead of titanium for better anti-freezing performance. Improved power using the new engine and initial overhaul only needed after 3500 hours. In general, a much improved helicopter compared to original Z-8.

Also, we've seen some new photos of Yuanwang coming out. I suppose that after these ships start doing their sea trial, then the JN shipyard will finally be free to start working on 052D series. Also, we've seen a new medical ship under construction, the model of it looks like this.


And finally, China has finally declassified Yu-6. It hails Yu-6 as a tremendous accomplishment in the face of Western embargo. It apparently entered service in late 2005 (explains why we've started to see so many Yu-6 pictures recently) after 10 years of development. The Chinese article on this can be found on SDF. I know I wrote about it as part of 093 article, but this is another place where China is claiming that Yu-6 has brought the underwater weaponry arsenal of PLAN to amongst the world leaders. So, currently the main torpedoes in use are Yu-3A, Yu-6, Yu-7 and ET-52. Yu-3A seems to be for older subs like 035. Yu-6 is for 039 and 093. Yu-7 is for the surface ships and some helicopters. ET-52 is for Z-9C.

Chinese naval helicopters

In the recent days, we have seen some new pictures of Z-8 with folding tail and rotor blades. You can see one of its pictures here.


The second one shows the size of Type 071 vs Z-8. Many people raised their view of the size of Type 071 after seeing this picture. Now, I'm not one of those people that actually tried to calculate Type 071's length based on Z-8's length from nose to folded area, but one of the guesses is 200 m and displacement to be 20,000 tonne. It certainly would be the largest LPD outside of San Antonio. Also, with the 2 helo hangar, I'm guessing it might be able to hold 3 on helipad + 2 in hangar = 5 altogether. This is definitely a step forward for the aviation capability of 071.

The first one shows the size of Z-8 vs people. To rehash one of my previous post on Z-8F improvements from Z-8A
Z-8F from Z-8A, uses a new engine that raises from 1190 kw to 1448 kw, go from titanium to composite rotor blades, service ceiling becomes 4700 m, in ground effect hover ceiling 2800 m
According to sinodefense, some of the specs of original Z-8
Empty weight: 7,095kg
Normal take-off weight: 9,000kg
Maximum take-off weight: 10,592kg (with standard fuel); 13,000kg (with two aux fuel tanks)
Passenger: 27 equipped commandos or 39 soldiers, or 15 stretchers
Maximum speed: 315km/h
Cruising speed: 266km/h
Economical speed: 255km/h
Service ceiling: 6,000m
Hover ceiling (out of ground effect): 4,400m
Hover ceiling (in ground effect): 5,500m
Range: Ferry range 830km; combat range 500km (with 3,000kg payload)
Flight endurance: 2 hours and 30 minutes (with maximum fuel and two working engines)
(kind of weird the specs listed below is more impressive than that of Z-8F, I think there probably is a mistake, but Z-8F is definitely an improved version from original Z-8A)
Z-8F was originally developed to be a transport I think, but it seems that a naval version has been developed as seen below with the SAR version.


Now that we are passed that, let's take a look at the naval helicopter in PLAN as a whole.
One of the more pressing needs for PLAN at the moment is naval helicopters. Currently, the PLAN helicopters consist of Z-8, Z-9C and Ka-28. Different sources would give different numbers of each helicopter in service with PLAN. For example, ka-28 number is listed as 10 on Janes fighter ship in 2004-5, as 10 on sinodefense and 24 on this
signal mag article. I personally think 24 is closer to truth because I saw the photos of several ka-28 that weren't listed in sinodefence's inventory list. The number of Z-9C is mentionned as 36 in that signal article, 25 on Janes and I think 30 on 2005-6 version. The number of naval Z-8 is listed as 20 on Janes and 10-12 on sinodefence. I personally like the Jane number, because 13 were acquired in the 70s and another 17 were produced by 1997 (yeah, they only produced 17 in over 10 years).

In their current roles, Z-9C seem to be equipping most of the frigates and older destroyers. Even on 054A, we have often seen models of Z-9C on the helipad. Z-9C is a light helicopter, and as such, cannot carry as much equipment and weapon needed for the ASW role. I'm not even sure at this point how many Z-9C actually carry a dipping sonar and/or sonobuoys. It can also only carry one light weight torpedo. Despite its limitations, it seems to be the most readily available and cheapest helicopter of the 3. Harbin Aviation was mentionned to have produced 7 Z-9s in 1 month a while back, so clearly production is not an issue. At this point, Z-9 is pretty much the most successful Chinese helicopter series. Even aside from its presence in PLAN, it is being equipped widely in army aviation and has achieved numerous export orders. During wartime, it will probably be the only one out of the 3 that PLAN would have no problem replacing.

Ka-28 is widely used with the modern destroyers and has also been seen with 054/A. It maybe the most capable of the 3 naval helicopters at the moment. In terms of its payload, range and endurance, they seem to all be impressive figures and it does not take as much space as a Z-8. It can land on both destroyers and frigates, and seems to be favoured on all of the recent PLAN ships. However, Ka-28 always has the problem of being an imported helicopter.
Finally, Z-8 seemed to have received a new lease in life in the Z-8F version. After Z-8F successfully flied in 2004, it achieved a level of production unseen previously. 9 were produced in 2005, 12 in 2006 and 15 are supposed to be produced this year. While some of the Z-8F are going to the army, there will definitely be a number going to the navy. With a maximum takeoff weight of 13 tonnes, it is definitely one that can carry the most load. However, it is very large, so it can only be operated on the ships with large helipad/hangar like 071, 072, replenshiment ships and such. It does serve a good role on amphibious ships, since it can be used to carry troops. With the improved production, it seems one of the past concerns with Z-8 has been removed.

In general, it seems that Z-9C are used for light frigates and older destroyers. Ka-28 are used for the more advanced destroyers/frigates. And finally, Z-8F are operating from amphibious ships and other large ships.

This will most likely be the case until Z-15, the new 10 tonne helo project and the rotorcraft project are completed.

Latest Developments

So, the nuclear submarine situation is getting more and more interesting. Now, we see new pictures of submarines that are claimed to be 093 SSN, but have diving planes on the sail (unlike the video from the museum). We have also seen pictures of the so called 091G coming out. I'm not sure what this says, other than that there might be more attack subs in service with PLAN than we realize. And also, it seems that we might have multiple variants of 093. The concept of successor variants of a project is certainly not new with PLAN. Some of the photos of the different submarines can be seen here.

Also, with the 80th anniversary, we have seen plenty of new pictures coming out. Here are the 4 052B/C ships taken at the recent time.





There are also some pictures of Yuan and 054A coming out. 529 has just returned from the sea trial

Revelations from 80th anniversary of PLA

Over the recent days, we have seen some new weapon systems getting unveiled and declassified by the Chinese government in the recent 80 years PLA anniversary celebration and other events. In the missiles side, we have seen pictures of DF-15 and the mysterious DF-25. There have been quite a lot of speculations on numerous Chinese bbs regarding to DF-25. The most outrageous of which is that DF-25 is the first medium ballistic missile with 3 MIRVs. I find this kind of troubling, since we do not yet know how many MIRVs DF-31/JL-2 can hold (if more than 1). Richard Fisher in his recent article mentioned that DF-21 was tested with multiple dummy heads a while back. I don't follow the 2nd Artillery enough to gain more insights, so I guess it's one of those things where you just have to wait for more pictures to come out.


With the new pictures of DF-15 coming out. There has been quite a lot of speculation that this is an ASBM version due to the small fins added to the missile. If we put aside ASBM argument for a while, one of the more interesting part in the recent years is the increased accuracy of Chinese ballistic missiles. This new variant of DF-15 is certainly more accurate than previous generations. I remember reading a newspaper article posted in June of 2002 on Chinese Youth Daily that the 80s test firing of DF-5 travelled 9000 km and still managed to achieve a CEP of 250 m. This figure is far smaller than the commonly accepted CEP of DF-5. I think this may apply to other Chinese ballistic missiles. Of the recent export missiles such as B-611 and P-12, the often given figure for CEP is 50 m and 30 m with GPS adjustment. Now, the domestic versions of these missiles can only be more accurate than these. For example, a domestic version of B-611 using Beidou guidance may achieve 25 m in CEP. This is still not exceedingly accurate, but approaches that of satellite guided bombs (original JDAM has CEP of 13 m with satellite guidance and 30 m without). Here is the even more interesting part. XAC is reportedly developing an upgraded version of JH-7 series that will be able to carry B-611. I'm assuming only 1, since B-611 weights more than 4 time of YJ-83K or any of the other usual attack weapons that JH-7A currently carries. And with the accuracy of something like KD-88 and YJ-91, it really doesn't make a lot of sense for JH-7A to carry 1 B-611when it could carry 4 KD-88 (which are far more accurate/cheaper) + more fuel. I don't think the destruction against an intended fixed target (unless a heavy bunker) will actually improve with B-611. So, this points to a possible anti-ship version of B-611. DF-15 and DF-21 have also been mentioned as possible ASBM by not only the ONI/JDW reports, but also by certain big shrimps on Chinese bbs (including ones that served for PLAN). However, I don't think these two have the same accuracy as a domestic version of B-611. Out of all the speculated ASBMs, the evidence for B-611 seem to be by far the most persuasive. Do I believe that China has ASBM? It's hard to say, because the obstacles against such weapons are great, but so are the voices from the people that believe in their existence. If I do see an air launched version of B-611 serving in PLANAF with JH-7A, I think I will believe it.


Speaking of Beidou, the recent PLA celebration displayed different types of Beidou equipments. Another interesting development is seeing TV programs showing command centers using software programs that are using Beidou coordinates. Clearly, Beidou is already a large part of PLA despite only having 3 satellites until this year. An even more interesting development on Beidou is a recent article on its development which claimed that it will have a 0.5 m accuracy. This is quite an improvement from 20 m for Beidou 1 and 10 m for non-authorized user for Beidou 2. It was never revealed what the accuracy for the paid users or the military users are, but going from 10 m to 0.5 m seems to be an awfully large jump. I'm a little speculative of the source (posted in a local newspaper), but like all things related to PLA, one must be patient for more sources.


Probably the biggest surprise from the recent military display is the unveiling of 093 class. The photo I think surprised a lot of people, because it does seem to be different from the previous speculated 093 photos (one of which had horizontal planes). There was also the mention of the so called 091G class. It's a little unclear right now to me whether they actually built new SSNs to that standard or they are just upgraded from the original 5 Hans. I would lean to the latter, since it is hard to think that ONI would miss something like launching of a new Han class sub. One of the more discussed topics is the kind of propeller used by 093. It is not a surprise that none of the photos showed the propeller, but you can see from the photos that there seems to be no wave caused by the propeller. The splashes around the sub itself seemed to be all caused by other parts of the hull. Whether or not this indicates 093 is using pump jet propeller is debatable, but it does seem like the propeller is far more advanced than that of any other PLAN subs. The other debates around 093 is around its reactor -> whether or not it is using pebble bed reactor. There has not been any indications either way on that. And finally, what weapons does 093 use? The main torpedo of choice for modern PLAN subs is Yu-6. I believe Yu-6 was developed to match or exceed the performance of MK-48 mod 5. One of the specs I read was 50 knots for 27 nm. I guess this figure may shock many people, because PLAN has never had any kind of torpedo at this level. But as we saw with PL-12, China is capable of developing very advanced missiles/torpedoes from much lower base. Just as PL-12 was developed to be able to engage 4th and 5th generation fighters in BVR situations, Yu-6 was developed to chase down Nimitz carriers and Seawolf SSN. As we've seen more pictures recently with PL-12 equipping all the latest fighters and Yu-6 equipping the Song class, it's quite clear that they are fully developed and PLA are happy with their performance. As for anti-ship missile and LACMs, it's not too clear at the moment what 093 will use. We know that YJ-82 is widely deployed on Chinese subs, but a submarine version of YJ-83 should also be under development if not already deployed. And finally, we recently saw on a CCTV report that the latest indigenous submarines are equipped with air defense missiles (the missiles look to be from QW series). The explanation for this is that Chinese submarines can't count on being protected by aerial assets against aerial ASW assets.


Finally, 094 was mentionned as one of the 3 major military projects in a government page along with KJ-2000 and J-10. Interestingly enough, this page was taken down soon afterward by the host (which is one of the government agencies). It seems like 093 and 094 have both achieved a level of operating capability for China to unveil them to the public. They may be one of two generations behind the latest Western nuclear subs, but will be significant upgrade over existing platforms before the more capable 095/096 come along (probably somewhere in the middle of the next decade).

Aircraft Carrier and SSBN

There has also been some news going out on aircraft carrier and SSBN. First, let's look at aircraft carriers, here is a photo of Varyag from recent times.


Now, we have seen numerous articles talking about China getting ready to build aircraft carrier. I have this article from kanwa's recent article.


This is not saying much, except that switchboard being ordered for aircraft carrier. Afterward, it commented on the possible shipyards for building the carrier. And it also talks about the welding equipment (I think) used for Chinese military ships.

From what I can gather on some of the more reliable sources on Chinese military webs, the indigenous aircraft project is known as the Project 048.

In terms of the supplier, I found a possible list a while back, don't know how accurate it is:
弹射器、拦阻索、特种甲板钢------德阳二重集团（已交付或部分交付）
catapult, arresting gear, special steel deck - Deyang 2nd heavy limited - I think this is the website for one of the subsidiary of this company?
http://www.ldjcj.cn/newEbiz1/EbizPortalFG/portal/html/index.html
This place is somewhere in Szechuan
fully delivered or party delivered already
舰体------------沪东中华集团 长兴岛（未知）
ship hull - Hudong Zhonghua in Changxin (no confirmation)

舰用轴承--------哈尔滨轴承集团 （已交付）
Ship bearing - Harbin Bearing Limited (already delivered)
This is their website http://www.bearinghrb.com/

锅炉配件--------哈尔滨锅炉厂 （已交付)
Boiler accessories - Harbin Boiler factory (already delivered)
website http://www.hbc.com.cn/

特种舰艇板材----鞍山钢铁、宝山钢铁 （已交付）
special ship plate - Anshan steel http://www.ceie.com.cn/ (delivered)
Baoshan steel - http://www.baosteel.com

舰载机----------601所 （在研）
naval fighter - SAC (in development)

舰艇设计--------中船重工701所 （技术冻结或已定型）
Ship design - CSIC 701 institute (finalized design)

配套舰船--------江南重工、沪东中华 长兴岛 、大连重工、黄埔造船（已开工）
escorts .... you guys know

配套核潜艇------葫芦岛厂、江南重工 长兴岛 （已开工或准备开工）
submarines - you guys also know

辅助舰----------沪东中华 长兴岛 、黄埔造船、广船（已开工）
replenishment ship - 886/887

训练舰----------大连重工 （已开工）
training ship - Dalian - Varyag

For the steel making part, there are basically 2 steel makers that have already delivered steel for the carrier and a third one that has yet to finish. Once everything is done, they will assess which one meets the requirements.

As for nuclear submarine, we've heard about the 094 being found on satellite imaging by FAS recently. Now, I don't have access to the satellite imaging, but I'm still unconvinced on this. There has been much speculation that the newly discovered ballistic submarine is 092 mod rather than 094. I think the only fair thing to say at this point is to not jump the gun either way. Kanwa mentioned something about 096 design being almost finished in the current edition of Kanwa. There has been one supplier that accidentally revealed it's part of the 095 SSN project a while back, but we have not found anything similar for 096.