Latest updates

First, on the planes front, there are a couple of developments to watch out for:

• We can start out with some new project at SAC posted on the official AVIC website http://www.avic1.com.cn/chinese/xwzx/detail/20070529_9.htm
• It basically talks about a new airframe being delivered for static testing. Now, normally static testing in PLAAF is the second prototype. So that probably means this class so far has the first prototype + this 02 prototype. It doesn't seem to be J-11B, since that should be going into service this year. So, it would have to either be SAC's J-11BS project (I guess Chinese attempt to get something in the class of su-34/F-15E) or their naval fighter project. I personally didn't expect it to proceed this quickly, but who knows.
• The second part is news from CAC side, there was a while back that xinhua mentioned a major project at CAC http://news.xinhuanet.com/mil/2007-04/30/content_6046552.htm
• Now, it seems like this is the major change on J-10. I guess the second variant after the original J-10 variant, not the much talked about twin engined J-10 project
• A couple of things, according to a "big shrimp" on Chinese BBS, this project will be much better than the original J-10, using WS-10 series + TVC nozzle, improved aerodynamics, more usage of composites, generally a more stealthy design (not sure whether internal carriage will be done), more network centric/better situation awareness, possibly built in IRST, improved radar (maybe too early for AESA, not sure). But the gist is that the design was finalized in April according to the article, and it normally takes 6 month to produce a prototype, so the first prototype might have a change of flying at the end of the year.

Now, on the naval side, there hasn't been a lot of movement since we last spoke. We have some new pictures of 054A, 071 and some new 022s launching, but only this picture is kind of interesting

This is pretty much the first clear over the head shot of 054A's VLS. Doesn't seem to be cold launched, since the cells are flat vs water level. Still trying to determine where the exhaust vent is. Some people are saying it's the part between two adjacent lids. We will see.

Recent News

First, new Varyag photos


Second, new pictures of 171 returning to Shanghai for maintenance


Third, a picture of the VLS of 051C

Fourth, a picture of the second 054A in HD finally being launched, interestingly enough, no sea eagle yet

Fifth, a picture of the first 054A in HP returning from sea test


Now, in the land of the aerial assets. Recently, we have seen evidences from photo leaks, military newspaper article and magazines of the following:

• J-10 is being equipped (probably fully converted) in the 5th regiment in 2nd division
• JH-7A has been spotted in a new PLAAF regiment in possibly 5th division (13-15th regiment) located in the Shandong area.
  
• JH-7A also has been spotted in a PLANAF 14th regiment of 5th division in Jiaozhou in NSF
  
• Z-10's first production batch is getting delivered this year
• Z-8F has finally reached production level (according to this link http://www.jxgfgb.gov.cn/news/news_detail.asp?id=2423, China produced 9 Z-8 in 2005, 12 in 2006 and at least 15 in 2007)
  

054A launched

First, possibly another 054A?


Anyhow, more pictures from today.
This is the first one in the front and the newly launched one in the back

more shots from today

Some recent PLAN pictures

We have a new Varyag picture here.

A recent 054A picture, the second one in HD about to be launched.

A recent 071 picture, looks like it might be installing SAM or maybe not.

Looks like some progress have been made everywhere.

What is left for Russia to export to China?

So, with the recent IL-76 controversy, I compiled a list of things I think China still might buy from Russia.

Land Force:
Not sure really - China never did import that much in this area.

Air Defense:
So, there is another 8 S-300PMU2 battalion order. After that, there is the S-400 system and the S-300V. At this point, I think there is still possibility of another purchase toward either S-400 or S-300V, especially since China needs to develop a NMD system. How far the domestic system in HQ-9 has come in ABM capability is unknown, but I would think not as much as S-300V. Tor-M1 discussions pretty much ended for good a few months ago. Buk-M1 has never been in consideration.

Air Force:
Transport/Tanker - I still think China will eventually settle on IL-76 or one of the large Antonov transports for another order before their own large transport gets developed. Clearly, the existing IL-76s are needed to be converted into KJ-2000, so they do lack large transports. And H-6U is not really ideal as the tanker.
AAMs - can't see any future purchases here.
Ground attack munitions - again, can't see any future purchases here unless for su-30s
Fighters - I think they might go ahead with upgrading some of their existing flankers. I don't think it makes a lot of sense for them to purchase su-34/35 at this point, since the domestic J-11 projects seem to be finally bearing fruits.
Bombers - Unless it's Tu-160, I doubt there will be anything. China clearly has no interest in Tu-22M and Tu-95
Avionics - Possibly upgrading su-30 with Irbis (as mentionned in JDW a while back)
Engine - Possibly another AL-31 order after this, but it really depends on how well WS-10A is going. I think RD-93 is definitely stopping after this first 150 engine order.
Helicopter - possibly some more sales of Mi17 and Mi-26, but that's about it

Navy:
Submarines - looks like they are not interested in any more Russian subs. Amur was offered, but it seems like China is more interested in their own next generation SSK. Nuclear sub technology could be one area where China gets help from, but it's not clear how much such technology have been offered.

ASW/Torpedo - They will need more Ka-28 until Z-15 naval version or the 10 tonne helo is ready. Yu-6 finally seems to have achieved a certain level and the imported Test torpedoes seem to not be used on any of the domestic submarines. I think that's a sign of the confidence to Yu-6. Be-200 order was mentionned last year, hasn't mentionned more since, but I think it will go through, since they need a replacement for SH-5.

Destroyers/Frigates - No more orders imo, although possibly upgrading the first two Sovs to using the later versions of Moskit and shtil.

Other ships - Possibly a replenishment ship or hospital ship. But Zubr orders are going through imo.

Aircraft Carrier - some assistance on Carrier operation and parts needed + a couple of su-33s, I don't even think they will extend the order to 14.

Missiles - Not more AShM, they had problems firing klub according to a recent article I read. The Russian SAMs are not likely to get any orders since HH-9/16 seem to be standard for future Destroyers/frigates.

New PLAN CIWS

well, we saw that China showed some Kashtan clones in the recent IDEX 2007 show. But those ones seemed to be pretty much geared for exports.

I got picture of a couple of new CIWS apparently for PLAN. Not sure if these are seriously going into service or not. An interesting part is that they no longer have the radar on the gun itself. I assume that must mean it requires some kind of on board radar (like Kashtan's on board radar) for targetting.


The latter is clearly more advanced with the 8 extra missiles + 1 extra "eye"
- Type 730 only had 3 "eyes" - TV tracking, IR tracking and LRF. Not sure what the 4th one is.

AVIC II development in helicopter and transports

Found this yesterday, interestingly enough, it was originally written in 2002 by someone from AVIC II. Even though it is 5 years old, it's amazing how much of the article has revealed. Anyhow, it mainly describes future works in two areas:
1. Helicopter
2. Transports.

Remember, this was written in 2002





states the following:
- China has used copying, self development and joint development to create Z-5, Z-6, Z-7, Z-8, Z-9, Z-11, participated in EC-120 and S-92 development. Mentionned some other ones, but I've never heard of them.
- currently, the mainly produced helicopters are Z-8, Z-9, Z-11 and EC-120
- Z-8 is the heaviest helicopter, it uses 3 turboshaft engine, maximum takeoff is 13 ton, maximum cruising speed is 248 km/h, range 800 km, ceiling 3050m????, endurance 4.1 h, first flight in 1985, produced 15 so far.
- Z-9 is licensed copy of AS565N, maximum takeoff is 3850 kg, payload is 1863 kg, cruising speed 293 km/h, ceiling 4500 m, range 910 km, endurance 4.4 h, first flight in 1982, has so far produced around 100 Z-9s and achieved 75% indigenization
- Z-11 is the first self developed helicopter, maximum takeoff is 2200 kg, payload is 880 kg, cruising speed is 238 km/h, ceiling 5280 m, range 600 m, endurance 3.7 h, 31 produced so far.
- EC-120, maximum takeoff 1730 kg, maximum speed 232 km/h, ceiling 6035 m, range 748 km, endurance 4.2 h, over 300 produced world wide, each year delivers over 100?

Transports
Y-5 - first small transport, 12 passenger, maximum takeoff 5250 kg, payload 1500 kg, ceiling 4500 m, speed 239 km/h, takeoff in less than 200 m, first flight in 1957, has produced over 1000
Y-12 - twin-turboprop engine aircraft, maximum takeoff 5670 kg, payload 1984 kg, speed 328 km/h, range 1340 km, takeoff distance 500 m, first flight in 1982, first Chinese plane to receive CAAC certification, the only one to receive CAA and FAA certification, produced over 120 so far and exported 94
Y-8 - 4-turboprop engine aircraft, maximum takeoff 61 t, payload 20 t, largest single drop item 7400 kg, ceiling 10.4 km, speed 662 km/h, range 5615 km, first flight in 1974, received Chinese aviation certification in 1993, deliverd over 80 and exported 16
Y-7 - 2-turboprop engine aircraft, first flight in 1970, received Chinese aviation certification in 1998, MA-60's maximum takeoff is 21.8 t, maximum payload 5500 kg, cruising speed 505 km/h, range 2400 km, seat 50-60, produced over 200
Y-10 - 150 seat aircraft using 4 turbofan engines, 2 prototypes, development started in 1970, first flight in 1980 and then cancelled, 130 flights, 170 flight hours. maximum takeoff is 110 t, maximum payload 25 t, 974 km/h, range 6400 m

back to helicopter.
Z-11 variants:
- in Z-11a, use a new engine that raises power from 510 kw to 557 kw, increase payload to 1074 m, ceiling to 6000 m, Hover ceiling (out of ground effect): 4,484m, Hover ceiling (in ground effect): 5,174m, climb rate 11.3 m/s
- Z-11b, payload to 1164 m, ceiling to 5168 m, Hover ceiling (out of ground effect): 3283m, Hover ceiling (in ground effect): 3932m, climb rate 8.4 m/s

Z-9 variants:
H-410A, H-425, H-450 - look at third picture. The stats are maximum takeoff, payload, service ceiling, hover ceiling (out of ground), hover ceiling (in ground effect)
H-410A - improved from Z-9A, engine go from 526 kw to 626 kw
H-425 - improved rotor system, avionics, structure, fuel management system
H-450 - in design certification stage

Z-8 variants:
Z-8F from Z-8A, uses a new engine that raises from 1190 kw to 1448 kw, go from titanium to composite rotor blades, service ceiling becomes 4700 m, in ground effect hover ceiling 2800 m

EC-120:
- raise domestic content to over 40%, HAIG is looking for a assembly line

S-92
- build capability of producing 48 tails per year.

Next generation , 6 tonne helicopter (originally CMH, should be EC-175 now)
- raise the survival rate of crew from crash to 85%, composite material to over 80%
maximum takeoff of 6 t, payload > 2.5 t, speed 270 km/h, range > 800 km, service ceiling is 5880 m

10 tonne helicopter, use a lot of composite material and 2 turboshaft engine, wish to produce an engine with 1765 kw output

Tilt-rotor aircraft, S-863 project and looking for joint development with other countries. I guess this is to create a Chinese V-22?

And then, there is a table with Y-12 performances on last picture. You can probably tell what they are.

more from this article.



Basically, starting from Y-12IV, first upgrade is to Y-12E, and then Y-12G, then Y-12F, you can see the stats for Y-12 from the last post.

Y-8 variants
- start with Y-8F400, reduce piloting crew from 5 to 3, use more advanced avionics, first flight in 2001 and certification in 2002
- then work on Y-8F600, crew reduced from 3 to 2, 4 blade propellor changed to 6, turboprop engine output from 3126 kw to 4039 kw, service life from 20000 h to 30000 h, cabin volume from 137 m^3 to 170, planned first flight in 2003
- then Y-8F800, maximum payload from 20 t to 30 t, range from 3800 km to 7800 km

Then talked about licensed production of BCRJ-50 with Embraer (ERJ-45)

large transport
- has a table in second picture comparing An-70, IL-76 and Y-10

turboshaft engine development
- start with WZ-8A
- develop an engine for the 6 tonne helicopter (I believe this is WZ-9)
- researching into an engine for the 10 tonne helicopter (I believe this is WZ-10)

You can see a table there in 2nd picture. the rows are the engines, the columns represent engine output, fuel consumption rate, output to weight ratio, temperature and the helicopter to equip on

Need improvement in transmission and rotor technology, using more composite material, survival technology