More public proclamation of the Carrier program

About a week and half ago, Chen Bingde finally publicly discussed the ex-Varyag aircraft carrier for the first time. And now that the veil has come off, we are seeing more public proclamation of the carrier program.

As we saw previously, a naval variant of the JL-9 trainer, currently serving in PLAAF, is being developed and tested. Today, CDF blog posted an article on China Military Online, which seems to be an official acknowledgment of this project. Interesting enough, this naval variant is named JT-9, instead of the previously expected designation of JL-9H. It'd be interesting to see what other part of the carrier project is made public next.

Varyag + China's blue water ambitions

Over the past year, I have seen numerous articles about China's aircraft program coming out as Varyag is getting closer and closer to joining service. Many of those articles are fear mongering and riding this "China is taking over America" sentiment that many Americans are feeling through this economic downturn. So, it was interesting that I read an article completely on the other side this week from wired magazine. Aside from the title, it raises some good points to think about while missing out on other points.

I think that David Axe makes a good point in bringing up all of the navies surrounding PLAN that have carrier(s) or aviation capable flattops. At this point, PLAN is just at the start of its blue water naval strategy. Due to the increasing pressure on PLAN to defend Chinese interests around the world, PLAN is finally getting into the business of building a blue water fleet. Due to its lack of experience in naval aviation and lack of contacts/training with countries that have naval aviation tradition, PLAN will be starting from a very backward position. As stated in the Wired article and by most PLAN observers, Varyag will be a training carrier once it goes into service. One can see the amount of resources that China has placed in its carrier program by the amount of resources spent on Varyag, the carrier simulation facility in Wuhan, the different take-off/landing facilities around the country and the numerous indigenous naval aviation program under way. Just from the latest photos of Varyag alone, we can see several close-in weapon systems that have not appeared in any previous PLAN ships.
We can see the new RAM-like HQ-10 SAM installed in 3 different positions on Varyag

A host of new sensors + 052C MFRs on the oversized island.

The new HQ-10 SAM + 12 barrel ASW rocket launcher + new 10/11 30mm barrel CIWS + 18 barrel multi-purpose rocket launcher



And here is a list of possible ongoing naval aviation programs. First, we have the mysterious fix-winged naval AEW program, which is probably aimed for the first domestic carrier.


And then we have the domestic Z-8 AEW program that is now going through trials with PLAN naval aviation.


Which is mixed in with 9 imported Ka-31 AEW helicopters. It's hard to say how PLAN will use the two platforms at this point, but I would imagine seeing both on Varyag + first couple of domestic carriers. I do see PLAN going toward the USN model in the future and use strictly fix-winged AEW assets.



And finally, they also have the J-15 and JL-9H program going. Due to its range and payload, J-15 could be designed to perform more than just air defense duties of Su-33. Think of Super hornets and all of its different uses in USN.



So, I would say that there are many new weapon systems and technologies developed in China for its naval program. On top of all of the new hardware been developed, the process of training competent carrier operation crew is just as arduous. So far, the only major cooperation agreement they have been able to make is the one with the Brazilian navy. Therefore, China has a lot of stuff to learn over the next 20 years. Varyag will be a training carrier once it goes into service, but it will also be an operational carrier once the sailors accumulate some years of experience. The same will be the case for China's first domestic carriers.

When I look at the entire PLAN modernization, I really think that the carrier program has trailed most of the other programs. Over the past 5 years, one can already see an increasing need for a Chinese blue water fleet with its increasing energy security concerns from Africa/Middle East + its dependence on world commerce + the number of Chinese nationals working in African/Middle Eastern/Pacific Island countries. China currently gets a free ride from US Navy for energy security and safety of its merchant ships, but it really has no trust in USN. A good number of Chinese people in and outside of the military thinks that US is trying to hold China down. And when one looks at the extremely vocal China threat group in Washington, it's easy to see why they would get this view. So, I think that even though China already has a clear need for a carrier, this program has trailed the rest of PLAN modernization for numerous reasons. And I think that as China becomes even more dependent on world commerce in the coming years, the need for a blue water fleet will become more apparent (even if it will make many neighbours uncomfortable). On top of that, China sees East Asia and Southeast Asia as its backyard and wants to become the big dog here that keeps order. It cannot do so with a green water fleet. You are seeing more comments/actions from China in this direction, even though they will not say this openly.

One part I think David Axe was really wrong on was the assertion that Varyag will be defenseless. The PLAN naval modernization/expansion have been going on for the past 15 years. If anything, PLAN already has the necessary escorts for the first carrier and is in the process of building many more advanced escorts as shown in the photos below. And the recent Gulf of Aden missions provided PLAN with an opportunity to try these ships out for long periods in blue waters, so they will be ready by the time Varyag becomes operational.
The first three photos are the 3rd, 4th and 5th 052Cs currently under construction in JN shipyard



This next photo is the 6th 054A currently under construction in the HD shipyard

And here is the 6th 054A from HP shipyard that just got launched.


The other importantly part of China's increased blue water ambitions is the need for oversea "places" that PLAN can dock in the future for supplies. Here is a Jamestown article on the issue of logistical supply places that are emerging from the Gulf of Aden missions. Now, I do think that China will need a couple of oversea naval bases in the future to protect its commerce and such, but it is not at that point yet.

Most recently after the Osama killing, a lot of noises came out of Pakistan asking China to have a naval base in Gwadar. Here is an Asia Times article on the subject of Gwadar naval bases. You can see that China is punting on this issue right now, because it does not make sense for China to have a base there at the moment.

At the same time, I did find this other article regarding recent meeting between China and Burma to be far more interesting.

According to official sources in Naypyidaw, Chinese officials have repeatedly raised the issue of mobilizing its naval forces in Burmese territorial waters in recent months amid the superpower's increasing interests in the country, most notably the Sino-Burmese oil and gas pipelines, and the Chinese navy's activities in the Indian Ocean, particularly patrolling against Somali pirates.

Chinese officials are not suggesting a Chinese navy base in Burma, but having the permission to dock their warships at Burma's ports while they are patrolling the Indian Ocean and Somalia, said a source who spoke on condition of anonymity. The issue is still under discussion.

However, Burmese military sources have said they believe that China is more concerned about protecting the strategic port of Kyaukpyu, a multi-billion project that Beijing financed.

After the pipelines are finished in 2013, they are expected to have the capacity to transfer to Yunnan Province more than 80 percent of China's imported oil from the Middle East and Africa, as well as Chinese-purchased natural gas from Burma's Shwe Gas Field.

Shwe Field is currently Burma's largest gas reserve with an estimated 7.0 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. It was discovered in 2004 and is likely to be operational by 2013. The Burmese regime chose to sell the natural gas from Shwe Offshore Field to China over another energy-hungry neighbor, India, in 2007, a move that consolidated the junta's position as a valued ally of Beijing.

The pipeline project includes upgrading the airport on Ramree Island where Kyaukpyu is located. Residents of Ramree Island said that they have seen not only Chinese workers, but also Chinese military personnel in recent years on the island.

Chinese interests include the protection of oil tankers. Beijing has sent warships to Somali waters in the past two years, a maneuver that marked the superpower's the first ever naval mobilization outside the Pacific Ocean.

Returning from a counter-piracy operation in the Indian Ocean in August 2010, two warships, the Guangzhou and the Chaohu, docked at Thilawa Port, near Rangoon, for a five-day visit. Burmese and Chinese state media reported at the time.

From this article, you can see all of the Chinese energy and economic interest in this region and why China would want to have a blue water navy that can operate in this region. When one look at the narrow Strait of Malacca where much of China's energy and commerce shipping flows through, it becomes clear why China would also want to build an energy pipeline that would bypass that. In that region, China would not only be under the mercy of USN, but also under the mercy or threat of Australia, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. That is quite a scary thought for the supposedly next super-power of the world. In the increasingly bitter confrontations between China and its neighbors over South China Sea, I think China will need to get back to building trusting relations with its southern neighbors while also continue to build an effective blue water navy.

So as Varyag is about to start sea trials, we see the shift of a nation from enclosed and poor to more prosperous and reliant on the world. The need for a blue water navy comes from China's need to protect its oversea interests + its people's desires for a strong nation. China will not become a blue water navy overnight, but would need years to develop competent carrier operations. It stills has a long way to go before it can be mentioned in the same breath to the Seventh Fleet. That's a scary thought for a nation that's more dependent than any other nations for safe and open sea lanes. As we observe the formation of China's blue water ambitions, I hope more people see if from this view point rather than the view point that China is about to take over the world.

An interesting day for PLA followers

Yesterday was just one of the crazy days for Chinese military bbs. A bunch of new photos came out that indicated different things. So, let's just go through them a little bit.

We already know about the 18 missile version of HQ-10s that are installed on Varyag. We also thought that several Type 730 CIWS are also installed on Varyag. That is until the up-close photos of these CIWS came out yesterday. I have attached two photos below showing the new CIWS + another photo below that of Type 730. The first thing that you can probably notice is that the turret of this new CIWS is much wider and is possibly installed on a larger mount. This new CIWS looks shorter than Type 730, but that maybe due to the fact that it is stubbier. The FCR still looks the same as before, while the EO sensor is covered. At the same time, it appears to have more barrels than Type 730. To me, it looks to have 9 barrels, but I've also heard estimates from 8 to 11. It appears that this new CIWS would have higher rate of fire due to greater number of barrels. I would think that the larger turret/mount is used to handle the higher rate of fire. It is also likely to store more ammos, so that the rounds don't get used up as fast. At this point, it's not clear if this new CIWS will only be installed on carriers or also other PLAN ships.




At the same time, we also got pictures of that new mysterious SSK finally arriving in Shanghai. It looks like it's ready to conduct sea trials here before getting commisioned into the navy. At this point, it's intended use is a point of heated debates on Chinese bbs. A large number of people seem to think that it will be replacing the retired Gulf class (No. 200) SLBM test launch platform (which I disagree with). Regardless of its usage, this new submarine is definitely much larger than Yuan class of submarines. From an earlier photo, the 6th Yuan submarine was also seen traveling to Shanghai for sea trials at the same time this SSK was leaving Wuhan.



Now, we also see some interesting stuff coming out of naval aviation. It appears that we have finally spotted a J-15 in naval aviation colour that is equipped with 2 WS-10A. The earlier prototype J-15s were installed with AL-31F. One can compare the two J-15 photos with that of a naval J-11BS (3rd photo) to see that they are both using WS-10A engines here. This is obviously an important sign, since Russia will not be supplying China with AL-31F for new Chinese flankers (whether J-11B or J-15). So, J-15 would not be able to join service until it finishes testing with WS-10A.




And finally, we also see a new photo of J-10B out of CAC. The surprising part, is that this photo was taken with the nose of the aircraft open. We have never even seen a picture of J-10A with its nose open! The canted shape of the radar and the surface of the radar would indicate that J-10B is fitted with an electronically scanning radar. This would indicate that J-10B will be either using an AESA or PESA radar. I cannot tell one way or the other from this far out, but my personal view is that this is an AESA radar due to the developments in Chinese military radar industry. I think what's more important is that J-10B appears to be ready for mass production to join PLAAF. After 6 batches of J-10A which probably ended at the first of this year, we are now seeing the 1st of J-10B getting produced.

Latest activities from JN shipyard

First, a thanks to the navy seals that were involved in killing Osama Bin Laden. There were certainly a lot of celebrations in New York last night. A lot of New Yorkers (including my room mate whose father broke his leg and uncle died in 911) received some measure of closure. Secondly, for all of the times where I questioned President Obama's policies, I cannot help but to admire his ability to deliver a speech that summed up the feelings of so many Americans.

Now, back to what I normally talk about: PLAN.

Although I'm not posting it here, the 5th 054A from HD shipyard has been launched and the 6th 054A from HP shipyard looks about to be launched. For those who are counting, 2 054 and 9 054As have entered service and 2 more 054As are launched or about to be launched.

More interestingly, we received a bunch of photos this weekend from JN shipyard of the 4 new 052Cs. I've read that new Yuan submarines and possibly more MCM ships are also under construction in this shipyard, but have not seen their pictures yet.

The first two pictures show the third 052C still getting fitted out. Compared to the start of this year, a good number of the foremast sensors are installed now (including SR-64). I think they still have to install those ECM/ESM bulbs amongst other things. I do not know what kind of work are done in fitting the inside of this ship, but it seems like they are taking a long time to get the ship ready for sea trials.



The next two pictures show the fourth 052C. From these angles, it's hard to make out its progress since the last set of photos. I do think that with the superstructure of this ship is fully in place, so it should take much longer before this ship can be launched.



The next two pictures show the modules of the fifth 052C. As you can see, the hull of the ship is almost ready to be assembled from these modules. We may have to wait until the 4th ship is launched before this unit can enter the dry docks.



The next two pictures show the modules of the sixth 052C. This one is a little further away from dry docks, but my guess is that it will still be launched at sometime in the middle of next year.



Finally, the person who posted these pictures also indicate that the area pointed in this next photo is an aircraft carrier currently under construction. Of course, it's too early to verify this information.

Some props to Shenyang Aircraft Corporation

As most of you guys know, the two biggest aircraft makers in AVIC-I are Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and Chengdu Aircraft Corporation. Both of these aircraft corporations also have civilian/military aircraft production facilities, military aircraft design institute (601 and 611 for example), aero-engine subsidiaries and other civilian ventures. In the past few years, I have generally been praising CAC a lot for its efforts in the J-10, J-20 and JF-17 projects. I think it’s truly great what they have developed/produced for PLAAF. I also think they have done a pretty good job in the export market with all of the successes of F-7 and JF-17 program. At the same time, I have been partly disappointed of the progress of SAC. However, I think some of the recent work by SAC deserve praise.

Founded in 1951, SAC became known as the "cradle of China’s fighter aircraft" for its efforts in producing aircraft and also help setting up other aircraft companies like CAC. It was the first company tasked with reverse engineering Mig-21 before later handing it off to CAC for most of the J-7 variants. It was also given the task to develop J-8 and J-8II fighter jets. I know that J-8 projects have been ridiculed in many places, but most of its early problems were due to delays in subsystems like radar and missiles. It has often been said the early J-8 radars couldn’t even pick out targets that the eyes could see. Once it lost out the 4th generation fighter jet project to CAC, it was given the task to license produce Su-27s. PLAAF certainly did not have the budget back in the days to license produce Su-27s and finance two domestic fighter projects (even J-10 was almost canned). One could argued that SAC could have took the more market oriented approach of CAC and partnered up with a foreign country to develop a self-financed fighter jet. In some way, it was able to do that with its assistance with Iran’s aircraft programs, but none of its involvements was made too public. By the time J-11B pictures first started appearing in 2007, CAC had already overtaken SAC as the big dog of AVIC-I in my opinion. Over the past 10 years, CAC has definitely done a better job in pushing China to catch up to the West and Russia in military aviation. However, the gap in its capability vs SAC was somewhat exaggerated by things that are out of SAC’s control.

It is true that SAC has not been the most innovative company. J-11B has basically turned out to have almost exactly the airframe as Su-27sk. J-11BS has turned out to be just a trainer like Su-27ubk. However, Sukhoi has often expressed its shock at how fast SAC was able to reverse engineer a heavy fighter like Su-27. It has gotten to the point where Sukhoi is publicly claiming that J-11B and J-15 can never be as good as the original Su-27 and Su-33. That is of course false, since the Chinese flankers have far better avionics, better T/W ratio and better weponry. I do think that China should work out an understanding with Sukhoi to compensate them for additional copies of Chinese flankers over the original agreed target of 200. For the past 3 years, the J-11B/S program have been delayed by troubles in WS-10A project. While some of the problems in J-11B program should be blamed on SAC, the continued inability of Shenyang Liming to reliably mass produce WS-10A put a halt to j-11B production. Early last year, we saw a picture of many J-11B parked outside of SAC without engine. Since that point, we are finally seeing mass production of WS-10A and plenty of good news for SAC.

According to scramble’s plaaf orbat, there are several regiments that have J-11B/S. Among which, the 1st division received the first regiment of J-11B (still using AL-31F). After that, it seemed like the next 2 regiments to receive J-11B are the 30th division of PLAAF and the 8th division of PLANAF. At this point, I do not know if they have fully been converted. From the latest pictures, we have also seen J-11BS joining the 37th division and the 19th division. In the case of the 37th division, it appears that one of the J-7 regiments will be converted into a J-11B/S regiment. In the case of the 19th division, it appears that J-11BS is currently just taking the role of trainers for the J-11s that are currently serving there. Surprisingly, scramble also lists the 17th regiment of the 6th division as another J-11B/S regiment. My guess is that this is probably not the case anymore. We have not received any kind of photographic confirmation on this, so those J-11B/S may have moved to one of the other regiments that are going through conversion. Even excluding that regiment, we are seeing 3 PLAAF and 1 PLANAF regiments that have been converted or is the middle of been converted into using J-11B. We are also seeing J-11BS joining different PLAAF regiments in the trainer role (rather than just in J-11B regiments). And I think once these regiments are filled later this year or by early next year at the latest, there will be at least 100 J-11B/S after about 4 years of production. When considering that J-10’s production is only a little higher than that in the same period, it is quite an accomplishment for SAC. This development would also indicate that PLA is very satisfied with the performance of J-11B/S.

More recently, we have seen the first high quality photos of J-15 coming out in PLANAF colours. In fact, the news of these photos have even reached New York Times. According to Chinese bbs, J-15 made its first flight back in 2009. For the past 2 years, we have seen several photos with J-15 conducting flight tests in SAC and CFTE, but have never seen a close-up shot until now. According to Huitong’s sources, J-15 made its first takeoff from a land based simulated ski-jump in May 2010. At this point, I suspect J-15 have already finished most of its flight tests and have been handed to PLAN naval aviation school for training and tactic development. It would not painted in PLANAF colours until it’s at this point of development. In the past, I read some fairly reliable sources that stated the first J-15 will be assembled by 2008 and make its first flight by 2009. After that, it would spend 2 to 3 years conducting flight tests and another 3 to 4 years going through naval aviation training, take-off/landing and developing tactics. The plan is to be ready when Varyag joins service in 2015. At this point, it looks like the progress of J-15 is really following that schedule. Some would say that J-15 is just cloned from T-10K-3 and represents no real advancements. However, I think it is reasonable to assume that J-15 will be fitted with the latest avionics and weaponry for air defense, anti-shipping missions and ground strike missions. J-15 should be able to perform far more missions and also be better at those missions than the original Su-33s and the upgraded Su-33s that the Russians were offering. The airframe probably incorporates minimal changes, but it is important for China to lower the development risk of its first naval fighter. The most important part is for SAC to develop something that’s reliable and competent that they can produce in good numbers.

The excitement does not just stop here. We have also recently heard numerous other rumours about future SAC projects. The most likely one is the J-16 project. At the time of J-11BS development, many people speculated that this will turn out to be a fighter bomber in the mode of Su-30MKK. However, it turns out that J-11BS has fully assumed the role of trainer like Su-27UBK. That would also explain why they were able to develop it so fast after J-11B. From the noise in Chinese bbs, J-16 will probably make its first flight this year and be ready to join service 2 to 3 years after that. The other projects that have really caused excitement are SAC’s 5th generation fighter jet project and UCAV projects. For the former, I am still waiting to see how it will turn out, because it seems like SAC will have limited resources for this one if PLAAF does not provide funding. For the latter, I think that SAC and CAC probably have both been working on them. The mysterious dark sword UAV is supposedly a rejected design from SAC. Hopefully, we will see pictures of these programs in the next 2 years to verify that they are in fact ongoing. There have been numerous other speculated programs, but I find them to be too unsubstantiated at this point.

At the same time, I have also been really impressed with the civilian arm of SAC. It became a tier-one supplier for the fuselage of the C-Series aircraft and a major supplier for Q-400. It is a supplier for different Boeing and Airbus aircraft. It also got the contract to produce Cessna 162 personal aircraft.

As a whole, this past year has been a really successful one for SAC. The J-11B/S aircraft are really joining service in good numbers. Its other military projects are also making solid progress. On top of that, it is also really assisting CAC with the J-20 project.

HQ-10 (aka Chinese RAM) for close in air defense

Back in 2008's Zhuhai airshow, a mysterious SAM called FL-3000N was shown and looked a lot like RIM-116 (aka RAM). You can see my commentary on this system at the bottom of my blog entry on Zhuhai 2008.

At the time, I thought it was more of an export project, since Zhuhai airshow tend to display those more prominently. I was also under the impression that PLAN was going the route of using new air defense guns as the next generation CIWS. It turned out with the recent Varyag photos, that they have decided to field both this new SAM (domestic designation is supposedly HQ-10) and what looks to be Type 730 (commonly found on most recent PLAN warships) on Varyag.

You can see them clearly on Varyag now that their tarp (at least 3 identified installations on Varyag) are finally uncovered.



As with many new weapon systems in PLAN, they are tested on the 892 test ship. We can basically identify two variants of HQ-10. The first one is installed in the front of the ship with 24 launch tubes. You can see it clearly with the first 2 pictures. The second is installed on a platform on top of the helipad of the ship with 18 launch tubes. You can see it clearly with the last 2 pictures taken about 3 weeks apart. Now, it seems like the one in the back is the one installed on Varyag if we count up the number of launch tubes. It also seems like there is a storage compartment beneath the platform it was installed on, which would indicate that it is storing missiles for automatic reload. The one in the front is unlikely to require deck penetration, since it is installed directly on the deck of 892. I don't think they would do the extra work of modifying the front section of 892 just for testing this out. So, that would tell me that the version in front is used for installations that do not allow for deck space below and the version at back is used for installations that do allow for one level of penetration. It also would explain why the version in front carries 24 launch tubes instead of 18.

Recent photos from the Chinese shipyards

I was very surprised a couple of days ago when a friend of my sent me this NY Times Article and asked me if I contributed to it. Varyag has certainly come a long way from the day when it got dragged to Macau to be a floating casino. I've posted many photos of Varyag in the past, but its progress has finally even attracted the attention of major Western newspaper.

Of course, there are also plenty of activities around other Chinese shipyards. First of all, we see some new photos showing three different 052Cs under different stage of construction at JN shipyard. To be frank, the first photo (third 052C) has not seemed to have made too much progress, but JN shipyard certainly has a lot of work going on. It is also apparently building a couple of Yuan class submarines that will be ready soon.




At the same time, we are seeing the modules to the third Type 071 LPD under construction at HD shipyard. Of course, the second Type 071 LPD is still fitting out the different components at the dockside. I think it should be ready for sea trials soon.



Finally, we have some more photos from the WuChang shipyard. We still see the same three submarines (one of the mysterious new type and two of the improved Yuan variant). It seems like one of them is ready to head to Shanghai for acceptance testing. We also, see the final 2 cutters (of this five year plan) getting fitted before been delivered to CMS.