J-20 had its first flight, what now?

This past week, all of the Chinese forums and aviation forums online were left buzzing with pictures and videos of the first flight of J-20. At the same time, news of Hu Jintao being surprised by Gates asking him about the first flight of J-20 were also circulated around the web. Either way, the recent news of J-20's appearance has caused a lot of headlines around the world. The question is what now? What does this mean for the Chinese aviation industry and PLAAF?

When we read the news online reporting J-20, we see a lot of different opinion. There are some that are immediately dismissive toward the plane, toward China's ability to field a 5th generation fighter jet and to weed of reliance on Russian support. I find much of these articles to be extremely misinformed on the current situation in PLAAF and Chinese aviation industry. For example, one common misconception is that China is still relying on AL-31F on J-10 and J-11 at the moment. While it is true J-10s are still using AL-31FN, it is also quite evident that J-11Bs are entering service in two different regiments (one in PLAAF and one in PLANAF) with FWS-10 as the power plant. I will get back to the issue of engine later. At the same time, there are also a lot of excited PLAAF fans online who are looking at this as the F-22 competitor and the F-35 killer. Some are even wondering about the need to continue produce more J-10 variants with the apparent arrival of J-20. While it is easy for a PLA follower like myself to get excited about J-20, it is also apparent that China has a long way to go.

I have always said that I expected the 5th generation fighter jet to first achieve operational status around 2018 (meaning having at least one full regiment converted to this plane and completed basic training on it). At this point, I still expect it to be so if everything works out. The first and the biggest question is engine. I was extremely surprised to find out a particular upgraded variant of WS-10 was used for the first flight instead of AL-31F. I believe that J-11BS's first prototype was also using WS-10, but did not think it had enough thrust for J-20. I think that J-20 made its first takeoff without the need to turn on its afterburners and took off at much shorter distance than J-10S. I don't think a fighter jet with two severely underpowered engines would be able to do that, so its engines should have more power than that of standard WS-10. Right now, there are basically two plausible theories right now regarding to the engines:

1) They are a specially modified version of WS-10G (an upgraded variant of WS-10) that generates comparable thrust to 117S. This variant has been in development for a while and has already finished long endurance testing. However, due to the continued struggle of Shenyang Liming (factory 606) in mass production of the basic variant of WS-10, this variant also could not move forward in its deployment. Due to the immaturity of the design, it would have much shorter service life and MTBO than more mature engines like AL-31F or even WS-10.
2) They are a specially modified version of WS-10's basic variant. These two engines are carefully prepared with more advanced materials and are switched to operate at higher thrust level than a normal production copy. Again, the MTBO time of these engines are much shorter than the normal WS-10s, because they have to handle the wear and tear of continuously generating more thrust.

Of the two, I think the first one is more likely. What does this say about WS-10? I think that while there are problems with the design, it can be successfully deployed in service if it is produced and maintained properly. PLA would not allow one of their biggest projects to make first flight with an engine that they have no faith in. I guess that is the main problem. Shenyang Liming has become the joke of Chinese aviation industry with its recent failures. After several years of fanfare, the WP-14 (Kunlun) project was recently abandoned. I would think much of that is due to Liming's problems with project management and quality control. At the same time, WS-10 and J-11B program have been delayed by at least 2 years due to continued troubles with the quality of WS-10 produced by Liming. WS-10 has only recently been fielded on J-11B after a lot of changes. You can only discover all the little problems with an engine after it has been installed on many aircraft and flown many hours. And I hope in the coming couple of years, Shenyang AeroEngine Research Institute (SAERI, not to be mistaken with Shenyang Liming) will be able to really increase the reliability of the design and use that in its other projects like QC-280, WS-10G and WS-10-118. However, even a really well designed engine can have a lot of problems if the manufacturer does not have good production or quality control processes. I hope that Shenyang Liming can fix its current problems. Otherwise, all of the production responsibility should be shifted to Xi'an AeroEngine PLC (factory 410). XAE has been mass producing WS-9 for JH-7A without any major reported problems and is also responsible for one third of the parts on WS-10. I believe that it is also responsible for producing WS-15 and large bypass turbofan engines for Y-20 once those engines are ready for mass production. It is obviously a long way from reaching the manufacturing quality of GE, PW and RR, but it is the golden standard of Chinese AeroEngine companies. It also scored major boast recently when it formed join venture with Nexcelle to produce and assemble jet engine nacelle components of the C919 project. These things will only help the project management and quality control of XAE. At this point, you may wonder why China does not just give up on Liming and pass everything on to XAE or even any of the other AeroEngine manufacturer. I think that China is trying to keep several factories around to foster competition. It remains to be seen whether or not XAE or GuiZhou Liyang or Chengfa group (factory 420) or any other factories will get in on WS-10. So, while J-20's first flight with WS-10 is a good sign, we still need to wait a couple of years to see if Liming or XAE or anyone else can finally reliably mass produce WS-10 engines for J-10 and J-11.

Questions have also been raised about whether other parts of a 5th generation program like missiles, avionics, aerodynamics, materials and stealth can reach that level. I think what we have seen recently in Zhuhai airshow with regards to PGMs and AShM + reports of different 5th generation AAMs in advanced development show that this is not an area of concern. In fact, aviation week reported that most of the next generation missiles were all designed with the weapon bay of J-20 in mind. I also find radar and avionics to not be an area of concern. The J-10B platform will be used to test out a lot of avionics that will eventually deployed on J-20 (albeit improved in performance). From the recent CIDEX 2010, it is apparent that the Chinese electronics industry has come a long way in a short time and is more than capable of developing and producing top notch of avionics for fighter jets and other military hardware. I think aerodynamics is another area that should be quite well developed. I certainly expect J-20 to be far more maneuverable than F-35 and at least on the same level as T-50 and F-22 in flight performance. The areas that I do question are material and stealth. Does China have the ability to produce the high quality composite carbon polymer, titanium and other material needed for a 5th generation fighter jet. I think they do due to all of the work they have with airliners, which are at the cutting of material technology. For example, Harbin aviation industry group is cooperating with Airbus as a supplier for composite material on A350. At the same time, AVIC-1 is also cooperating with Hexcel and Boeing to produce composite materials for Boeing jets. SAC is in charge of the entire aluminum-lithium fuselage for Bombardier's C-Series jets. That leaves us with the biggest question of stealth. I've already heard plenty of complaints about the effect that the canards and the variable DSI-like intake would have on stealth. I think when CAC was developing J-20, they had to make compromises between its weight, aerodynamics and stealth. They definitely developed it with the intention of creating a LO-platform as we can see from internal weapon bay, the general shaping of the aircraft, the jagged edges of all the compartments and panels and the "stealthy nozzles" on the engine. However, what kind of affect would the canards or the intakes or anything else would have all the signature of the aircraft. Did they develop J-20 with full aspect stealth in mind? And what kind of results have they achieved in plasma stealth and application of radar absorption material? These are the things I don't know and we will have to wait to be answered. One of the most significant part of J-20's development is that these areas of development can be applied on J-10 and J-11 to improve their capabilities.

What does J-20 mean for the aircraft makers of AVIC-1? It appears to all of us that CAC/611 Institute has overtaken SAC/601 Institute as the top dog of AVIC-1. After all, CAC beat SAC in the competition for the 5th generation jet and the 4th generation jet (J-10). It also scored many export contract with J-7s and JF17s, while SAC has not done anything. From this, SAC has taken a lot of heat for its inability to produce anything new, while continuing to develop new variants of J-8. I do think that a lot of it is unwarranted. It probably does not have the ability to innovate like CAC, but it has done a lot of good things with flankers. China made the decision to locally produce Su-27s, because it could not at that time develop a comparable fighter jet. While CAC was given resources to develop J-10 (and it did a great job), SAC was forced to learn something as complex as Su-27 and produce it. Sukhoi has been very surprised to find out that SAC was able to learn enough about su-27s so shortly to be able to develop (or copy as the Russians call it) and completely locally produce J-11B and J-11BS. With its experience in developing J-11B/S and studying T-10K prototype, it was able to fast track and quickly develop J-15 fighter jet. Even though CAC is the main contractor for the J-20 project, SAC's experience in heavy fighter and high quality titanium and aluminum alloy with J-11 project has been extremely important in J-20's development. So as we move forward, CAC and SAC are both very important in the future of Chinese military aviation. As SAC has shown in its ability to land major supplier contracts with Boeing, Cessna and Bombardier. I also hope that Xi'an AC and Shaanxi AC will continue to advance in RnD and production through future transport and bomber projects. It is important to continue to foster competition within AVIC-1 and compete in international aerospace industry.

The other big question is what J-20 will mean for PLAAF. In the current time, J-10 and J-11 form a good light-heavy fighter jet combination with JH-7A as the main strike bomber and H-6 as strategic bomber. PLAAF still has a large number of J-7 and J-8 regiments that will need to be replaced in the coming years. In spite of what some may think, PLAAF does not have endless amount of cash that it can spend on new weapons procurement. It is important to spend an increasingly amount of budget on recruiting the best pilots and putting them through the best training programs. Even if PLAAF is somehow handed the entire F-22 inventory of USAF today, it would not have enough budget to operate and maintain them while also maintaining all of its other aircraft divisions. Even in 10 years when J-20 first enters PLAAF in meaningful number, PLAAF will not have enough budget to field it in large number. You may ask at this point why they do not just shrink the size of its air force like what most other air forces are doing. They have actually shrunk their air force quite a bit already when J-6s were put out of commission and will probably shrink a little more when J-7s retire. However, China has a very large airspace and cannot shrink past a certain point. As a result, PLAAF will likely be made up of a combination of the very hi (J-20), the middle (J-10s, J-11B+), the lo (early flankers variants, J-7/8s) and non-fighter jets (JH-7A, AWACs, K-8, L-15, Y-8/9...) by 2020-2025. Over the next 10 years, J-7 and J-8 regiments will slowly retire out of service. At the moment, J-7s are replaced by J-10s while J-8s are replaced by flankers and newer variants of J-8s. Flankers are likely to remain in service with PLAAF for a long time, because they will be very useful in the roles of fighter-bomber and strike aircraft even after the proliferation of stealth aircraft. If XAC does not develop a replacement for JH-7, then J-11BS could eventually be used to replace JH-7 regiments. Some people have wondered about the role of J-10 in PLAAF after J-20's induction. Some have even questioned the need for J-10B or future variants of J-10s. I think that J-10B or a future variant of J-10 will form a hi-lo combination with J-20 as the backbone of PLAAF's air superiority fighter jets. Some of the technologies tested on J-10B can then also be used on J-10A to improve its performance. Either way, I think J-10s will continue to replace J-7 regiments around the country and become the work horse of PLAAF. It is important to watch out the engine situation of J-10s. I'm hoping that WS-10 series will soon become reliable enough to be used on J-10s. Aside from J-10s and J-11s, it seems that PLAAF also wants to use a cheaper 4th generation option to replace some of the remote J-7 regiments. After all, you don't really need J-10s to protect the airspace against Kazakhstan or Mongolia.

That seems to be where JF-17s come into play. From what I'm gathering on Chinese bbs, it seems that PLAAF wants an ultra cheap option under $15 million to replace some of the J-7 regiments. You may think it is crazy that PLAAF regards the $25-30 million price tag of a J-10 to be too expensive, but that is the case. If PLAAF does pick JF-17 (or a new cheap 4th generation) design, it will not be as fancy as the one prepared for PAF. It would have to be using a domestic engine like WS-13 to lower the cost. It would probably not be required to have more than 7 hard points or have any significant multi-role capability. Its radar will probably be similar to KLJ-7 and not required to have greater concurrent engagement capability. Basically, you can think of it as a low cost, bare bone JF-17 that can fire BVR weapons and have reasonable range. At this point, we will have to wait for pictures from CFTE to see when or if this cheap 4th generation fighter jet theory will come to fruition. Either way, I think PLAAF will continue to stay within its budget and not go after too many expensive options and retain quantity to counter all of its perceived threats.

J-20's first flight is a significant turning point in the history of PLAAF and Chinese aviation industry. It shows the progress that Chinese military aviation industry has made in the past 15 years. It really shows that CAC has turned out a young and energized generation of engineers capable of designing advanced military aircraft. We will likely see continued progress of J-20, J-10, JF-17 and different UAVs from CAC in the coming years. We should also not overlook the many challenges, like engine and stealth technology, that China faces in its development. J-20's unveiling does not mean China has caught up with the west, but rather it has learnt a lot from everyone and has gained a lot from cooperating with everyone. And the Chinese aviation industry can only grow from continuing to cooperate with Western companies in C919 and other aircraft programs.

China's conventional submarine fleet

In the past few months, we have seen renewed activity around WuChang shipyard with the launching of numerous new conventional submarines. That got me interested in spending more time looking at China's diesel submarine fleet and how they are deployed. This blog entry will devote most of its energy on the 039 series, since that is currently the main work horse of PLAN. At this point, I really cannot answer questions like how quiet these submarines are, since I do not have that kind of classified data or have experience in signal management to give good estimates.

As you guys know, PLA Navy contains three fleet: North Sea Fleet, East Sea Fleet and South Sea Fleet. There seems to be 2 flotilla of submarines in each fleet. At the moment, we have some 033s, 035s, 039s, 039As and kilos serving at these flotilla.

The Type 033 class submarines are basically the domestic productions of Romeo Class submarines from USSR. The production of 033s went on through the 60s and 70s before finally stopping in 1984. It is obviously an extremely old submarine class and have mostly retired from service. Currently, they are still serving at some flotilla in training roles.

The Type 035 Ming class submarines were the first domestically designed submarine. They were developed based on Romeo class and had a lot of problems early on. The original variant of 035s were error-prone and retired from the service by the 80s. Following that, a 035G variant was developed. This variant started production in 1987, a full 18 years after the first 035 started production, because Chinese military development basically paused in those years. The 035G and the subsequent 035G1 variant continued production until 1996. This class is currently in service in much of the NSF flotilla with the 2nd and 12th submarine flotilla. A following class 035B (also known as 035G2 in some circles) were produced between 1997 and 2001. About 8 of these boats were produced for the SSF and they are currently serving in the 72nd submarine flotilla. These boats were built after the first 039, so they adopted a lot of technologies from Song class like Anechoic tiles, more advanced fire control systems and the ability to fire more advanced weaponry. In fact, a recent article has shown that 035B submarines are capable of OTH strikes (through YJ-82 I assume). Ming class also has the dubious honour as the submarine that caused the deaths of its entire crew. So even though it is still serviceable for coastal patrols, this class is not fit for front line duty.

In the early 90s, PLA took advantage of the low Russian defense funding to import large quantity of highly capable former Soviet weapon systems. One of the most recent imports is the Kilo class. As early as 1995, China received two units of project 877EKM (kilo class) from the Russians. These two were followed by two units of the improved kilos (project 636) in the late 90s. These were highly capable systems that were more than one generation ahead of anything in service with PLAN. They were also capable of firing heavy Russian torpedoes that were a generation ahead of what was available at that time for 035 class. In response to possible Taiwanese import of submarines from US, PLAN ordered 8 more improved kilo class (project 636M) in 2002. These boats had new fire control system, French Sonar and the ability to launch the supersonic Klub-S AShM. Eight of the Kilo submarines were assigned to the 42nd Submarine flotilla of East Sea Fleet (No. 364 to 371) and the other four were assigned to the 32nd Submarine flotilla of the South Sea Fleet (No. 372 to 375). In the recent years, the Kilo class have lost some luster with PLAN. We hear about several early failures with launching Klub-S missiles and only see pictures of Kilo submarines at the dockside or in shipyards for repairs). I don't know if it has become paper tiger, but PLAN does not seem to be using its capabilities fully.

As China imported Kilo submarines in the 90s, they also started the construction of a new generation of submarine (aka the Type 039 Song class). The first boat had a lot of problems after its launching in 1995 and did not join service until 1998. Even then, it seemed to be quite outdated design compared to the Kilo class. Major redesign was done during that time and an improved variant, the 039G variant, came out between 2001 and 2003. The easiest way to tell from the original 039 boat (No. 320) and remaining 039 variants is the removal of the stepped sail structure. PLAN only ordered 3 039G submarines (No. 321 to 323) before making further changes and starting mass production of 039G1 variant. Here are some of the changes courtesy of Crobato:

• The G1 has only a single line of sink holes near the front bow. The G has three lines.
  
• The G has a continuous sink hole line behind the sail. In the G1 it is staggered.
  
• The back of the G model where the sail meets the hull is webbed and shaped with a curve. The back of the G1 model where the sail meets the hull is just plain straight.
  

About 12 boat of 039G1 variant (No. 314 to 319 and 324 to 329) were produced at JiangNan shipyard and Wuchang shipyard from 2004 to 2006. Please note that I am guessing with some of the number of these submarines, because the number of the boats are almost never on the released photos. At the moment, the 22nd Submarine Flotilla of the East Sea Fleet is made entirely of Song class. I believe they have No. 320-323, 314, 317-319. Here is a photo of that flotilla:

Four of the 039G1 variant joined with 4 636M in the 32nd Submarine Flotilla of the South Sea Fleet. Please note that 324 and 325 were originally in the 22nd Flotilla, so some sources still have them listed in that flotilla. Here is an image of 2 039G1 and 4 636M from this year.

And finally, 4 039G1 boats (No. 315, 316, 327, 328) joined 4 035G boats in the 2nd Submarine Flotilla of the North Sea Fleet. Here are some pictures of those boats together. Fortunately, we can actually see the number on these submarines, but I've had no such luck with other Song class photos.


At this point, Song submarine have become the work horse of PLAN. We constantly see pictures of one or more Song submarine out in the sea. The famous incident a few years ago involved a Song class submarine surfacing next to Kitty Hawk. That incident shows that Song submarines are venturing further and further away from the home base. This storyline forms an interesting contrast to the pictures of Kilo submarines sitting by the dockside. It also probably explains why China has not been interested in purchasing more Russian submarines.

In 2004, the lead boat of the 039A Yuan class (No. 330) was launched in WuChang shipyard while Song class was in the middle of mass production. This boat showed some Kilo influence with the hump, but also retained much of the features of 039 class. It is apparently also the first PLAN class using AIP system. It took a couple of years for this new class of submarine to sort out all of the problems. Similar to 039 class, a new variant of 039A came out a few years later with some changes from the first boat. Please see the photo below for the differences between the lead boat and the second boat:

I think that the trial period for 039A class was shorter and changes from first boat to second boat were fewer, because the leap from 039 to 039A was much less than the leap from 035 to 039 class. A total of 3 new 039A boats were produced from 2007 to 2008 to join the original 039A in a new flotilla. The picture below shows a flotilla with 3 Yuan class and 1 Song class.

I believe this was taken before the 4th Yuan was delivered to PLAN. I do not know where this flotilla is located, although I suspect it is a new flotilla established for East Sea Fleet. The Yuan class seemed to have followed Song class of one lead ship, 3 following variant and then more mass production. After a gap of 2 years, we recently have seen 2 new Yuan submarines launched in WuChang shipyard as shown in the photos below.


I cannot easily tell the difference between these boats and the previous 3 due to lack of more quality photos, but I did read that the interior had changed a lot in the new boats. As we move forward, I would expect that many new Yuan submarines will come out of WuChang and JiangNan shipyard in the coming 2 years. The production of this final variant of Yuan will probably be either 8 or 12 units based on the production path of the Song class. They will probably be assigned to the East Sea Fleet and the South Sea Fleet. At which point, the 035B submarines could be transferred to North Sea Fleet to replace the older 035G boats. By that time, 039/G and 039A class submarines will form most of the conventional submarine fleet.

And finally, a new class of submarine was launched in WuChang shipyard near the end of last year. There have been some discussions on this blog regarding to this new class when the lead boat first came out. Here is probably the most up close and detailed photo of this submarine.

Based on this photo and side by side comparisons with Yuan submarine, we can see that this is quite a large submarine (near the displacement of Soryu class). It seems to be designed to operate further offshore than Song and Yuan class. I guess this is part of PLAN's move to operate further and longer away from the shore. In the next couple of years, we will find out more about this class and its purpose. I would think that if this is a successful design, it will follow the production path of Song and Yuan class. By sometimes late this decade, it is possible that PLAN submarine force will have moved on completely from 60s Soviet era designs. That would make submarine the first type of large weaponry in PLA to do so. I think this truly shows the emphasis that PLAN has placed on conventional submarine fleet.

J-20

The last week has really been an exciting time for PLAAF fans, because real photos of J-20 started appearing on various Chinese military forums online. I think it is also time for me to butt in with some little thoughts I have on anything J-20 related.

First of all, I would not characterize myself as knowledgeable in stealth technology or aerodynamics. When I look at J-20, I certainly see something designed to compete against other 5th generation aircraft out there. But if you were to ask me whether I think this is more stealthy than PAK-FA or more maneuverable than F-22, I simply would not be able to give you an answer on that.

However, I do find this to be an extremely interesting development. Here are some things that I find really interesting:

1. Transparency - It is really shocking to me that the photos for J-20 came out this early. Looking back, the first real photos of J-10 came out 3 or 4 years after the first flight. Even after the first photos came out, most photos that we saw were PS'd photos or CGs. The much less hyped J-10B's first photo came out 3 months after the first flight. Now, we see J-20's first photos coming out before the first flight even happened. I think it is a combination of modern technology and increased transparency from PLA. We see many people lining up with their cameras outside of CAC taking photos with no sighting of security around them. At the same time, we see the Chinese military forums allowing these photos to be published as soon as they are available. I think this shows PLA is more willing to allow high profile projects to be unveiled earlier on. The mysterious new conventional submarine in WuChang shipyard was unveiled as soon as it got launched. Maybe PLA will become as transparent as US military in the future. But until then, they seem to just be comfortable releasing details of their new projects through internet forums and camera phones.
   



2. Size - I think one thing that really shocked a lot of people is how large J-20 is or at least how large it appears to be. The original photos lead certain people like Bill Sweetman to conclude that J-20 has "overall length of 75 ft. and a wingspan of 45 ft. or more, which would suggest a takeoff weight in the 75,000-80,000-lb. class with no external load". With those assumptions, many concluded this to be designed in the role of fighter-bomber as F-111. However, recent analysis on Chinese bbs of the size of J-20 vs truck beside it compared to the size of J-10 vs the same truck yielded the conclusion that J-20 is more likely around 19 to 20 m long, which would make it shorter than flankers. Even when we factor in what appears to be greater fuel load and internal weapon bay, it should still be about the same size as flankers. Personally, I kind of see J-20 as replacing the role of flankers in PLAAF in the future. It would have to be capable of handling more long range strike missions than flankers, but it would most likely serve as the heavy fighter jet in hi-lo combination.
   



3. Prototype or technology demonstrator - Another question that some have raised is whether this is a prototype or a technology demonstrator. Back in 2009 on a CCTV interview, He Weirong, deputy commander of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, said that J-20 would be flown in 2010-11 and be operational in 2017-19. I would say from that interview that this is the first couple of prototypes. However, I would also say that the final production version could have a lot of changes from this original prototype. After all, this is China's first attempt at developing a 5th generation fighter jet. They will have a lot to figure out and make fixes to initial design issues before the production version is settled down. More than anything, the first flight will clearly be conducted with something other than WS-15. If WS-15 is intended to be the engine for J-20, then some more changes + test flights will need to be done with WS-15 fitted J-20 before that version achieves operational status.
   



4. Engine - This is probably one of the biggest mysteries surrounding J-20. What is the engine that it is using right now? We know that WS-15 is still years away from being ready. We know that AL-31F and FWS-10 would be vastly underpowered options for J-20. So, I would think the most obvious solution in the early stages of testing would either be 117S or some upgraded variants of FWS-10. Since upgraded variants of FWS-10 are not ready yet, 117S is most likely the engine on the first prototype. There has been a lot of talks about worsening China/Russia military relationships due to cloning issues, but I do think turbofan engine is one area where the cooperation is still quite beneficial for both sides. As we move forward, I think it will be interesting to see how the engine situation will change over time. Will 117S be the engine for J-20 until WS-15 becomes available? Will the initial production J-20s use upgraded variants of FWS-10? When will WS-15 be ready and how long will it take to do so? These are all important things to look forward to.
   



5. Industrial impact - A lot of people have called J-10 program the "Apollo program" of China's aviation industry. I have a feeling that the J-20 program will become that way too. In order to have a successful 5th generation design, J-20 will have to yield advances in stealth technology, aerodynamics, materialogy, avionics, missiles and propulsion. The J-10 program brought about an entire new generation of aerospace engineers for Chengdu Aircraft Corp (CAC) that are the driving forces behind all of the recent CAC projects. Many of the engineers are in their 30s and already have worked on many high priority programs. They should have the best years of development ahead of them. At the same time, producers of J-10's subsystems across the country also became more capable. The RnD for J-20 project should do the same thing for CAC and other suppliers.
   



6. Help from civilian programs? - In many ways, China's current civilian programs will help J-20 and vice versa. In the area of electronics, the most recent CIDEX 2010 exhibition clearly showed that the advances in civilian electronics in manufacturing and design have carried over to the military side. We have also seen similar improvements in avionics/radar for recent Chinese aircraft projects. At the same time, I think the C919 will also be very helpful toward J-20 program. As part of C919 program's involvement with Western suppliers, they will learn modern project management methods, purchase/develop more advanced production tooling and manufacturing process. These are all knowledge that can be transferred to J-20. Just as importantly, the suppliers for C919 will also work with local Chinese manufacturers to produce subsystems. This will produce a whole new network of suppliers that would be able to produce high quality subsystems for J-20. And of course, the advances in J-20 program will also be able to make these suppliers more competitive in civilian programs. Problems for the FWS-10 program have often been attributed to not enough testing in the development phase and production line problems. I would think that experience working with MTU and GE in producing propulsion units for C919 could also be transferred to allow the development and production of more reliable WS-15 engines. I can go on and on here, but there are plenty of examples where civilian programs could help out J-20 and vice versa. We have seen in recent year that successes in civilian shipbuilding have really been instrumental in the mass production of naval ships. I believe that successes in civilian aviation program can do the same for J-20 and WS-15 programs.
   

Top stories of 2010 for PLAN

After a couple of relatively quiet years for PLAN, 2010 was the return of naval shipbuilding boom that was prevalent in the middle part of this decade. There were many stories from this past year, but I decided to pick 10 stories to look over.

1) Finally seeing real and tangible progress in the carrier program - We have seen some movements toward the completion of Varyag in the recent year and news about the start of naval aviation school. This year, we saw official acknowledgment of China's carrier program in a book by the State Oceanic Administration, which marks the first such acknowledgment by the Chinese government. We also saw real changes in Varyag throughout the year. We saw a lot of work on the island, including the installation of some important sensors. We saw close-in defense systems like HQ-10, Type 730 gun and Multi-rocket launchers installed. It's hard to think China will put this much sensor and weaponry on Varyag unless they have more plans for it beyond just a training ship. And finally, we saw smoke coming out of the furnace and the auxiliary propulsion unit very recently. I would really not be surprised if this thing gets starts conducting sea trials sometimes next year. On top of that, we are also seeing the first 2 Ka-31s delivered to PLAN from Russia. These are 2 of the 9 early warning helicopters on order to be used on Varyag and possibly other aircraft carriers. We've also seen the Z-8 AEW project under way with the first prototype going through sea tests. I believe a fixed wing AEW project based on the Y-7 airframe is also in development. This does raise the question of what roles do each of these early warning platforms play in the future of PLAN. Will they be used on the Type 071 platform at some point? Will they be used on a future helo carrier platform? Or will they only be used on aircraft carriers.

2) Seeing the introduction of many systems that could be used in the ASBM program - Since we first reported on this program in 2009, ASBM has been mentioned prominently by every article talking about the rise of Chinese threat to US navy in East Asian waters. In many ways, we are seeing many new systems coming out that would be very useful to the ASBM program. In the Zhuhai air show, Chinese weapon manufacturers were openly showing a video of a new type of indigenously developed UAV spotting US carrier group with the satellites' assistance and then feeding the information to shore based anti-ship missiles to attack those targets. I'm not sure how much of this capability has been realized, but it was an unusually open and suggestive display of intention. We saw 5 launches of Beidou Navigation satellites this year, 1 launch of a new data relay satellites and many launches of EO satellites in the Yaogan series, which could all be used to help find targets, relay targeting info and help increase accuracy of missiles. On top of that, the many new recon UAVs and UCAVs shown this year in the Zhuhai air show can all help in identifying targets originally picked up by OTH radars.

3) The restart of 052C production - When 052C class first came out in 2003, it was revolutionary by PLAN standard. These were the first ships to have long ranged vertical launched air defense system. They were the first ships to have modern AESA multi-functional radar and other modern ESM/ECM sensors. And most imortantly, they were the first to have modern combat system. In fact, many China threat analysts dubbed this the Chinese Aegis system. After these ships were launched, they had so many issues to sort out that it took another 7 years before the next ship in this series came out. I'm not sure if this is an indication that China's first attempt at a modern area defense combat system set the bar too high (it normally only takes 3 years or less for other new PLAN ships to work out issues with new capabilities) or that China's previous combat system level was too low. Either way, we have yet to notice any real changes to the new 052C units other than reportedly using domestic production of GT-25000 gas turbines. Many people have expected to see larger improvements like from 052B to 052C. In many ways, I think this is a good sign indicating that they took a lot of time sorting out problems with the new air defense system and really learning lessons from them. It is reported that this 4 052Cs will be produced in this batch. This would mark the start of the mass production of modern DDGs for PLAN to replace the very old and outdated Luda DDGs.

4) Seeing the start of Type 071 mass production after achieving full operational capability - This has been really big year for the 071 class. While 998, the lead ship, has been in service for 3 years now, it spent the first 2 years without the LCAC-like air cushioned hovercraft that are designed for it. This April, the first Chinese LCAC finished all of its sea trials and joined service with 998. In the coming month, we would see 998 and its "LCAC" being deployed to Gulf of Aden. In that deployment, we would see pictures of LCAC and fast patrol boat coming in and out of the well deck. We saw pictures of three helicopters (2 Z8s + 1 Z-9C) on its helipad at the same time about to takeoff and land. These may be quite routine for USMC, but are all first time achievements for PLAN. We also confirmed that the dimensions of Type 071 are about the same as the San Antonio class. As 998 was doing patrols in Aden, the second unit of Type 071 was quietly being assembled in HuDong shipyard. By the end of the year, the second unit was also launched. I found it really amazing the speed at which they assembled the blocks and launched this ship. They seemed to have made some minor changes from the lead ship for the mass production phase of this class. It appears that PLAN is quite satisfied with Type 071 and is starting a large production run. As we move forward, it will be interesting to see how PLA intends to use this class of ships in the future.

5) Continued presence of PLAN around the world and increased cooperation in Gulf of Aden - I don't spend a lot of time talking about PLAN training and deployments, but I do think this year also represented a surge in PLAN cooperation with other navies. For the past year, China has continued sending its latest warships to the Gulf of Aden. We see most of the 054 and 054A class ships being tested out there. They are also having more cooperation with Western navies to help with patrols in that area. According to a Jamestown article, PLAN is also setting up several supply depots along the way to help maintain its patrols. Previously, they had only been protecting Chinese commercial ships. And after deployments to Aden, these ships normally make port calls to different countries on their way back to China. The only ship of the Type 920 hospital ship class, 866, also made a trip to different countries in Africa and Asia as part of PLAN's show of soft power. On top of anti-piracy related activities, we've also seen more naval exercises in the past year with countries like Australia and Thailand.

6) The appearance of the new conventional submarine in Wuhan shipyard - Earlier this year, we saw the launching of a mysterious new class of conventional submarine in Wuchang shipyard. As we've discussed in this blog, this submarine is significantly changed from the Yuan class submarine. It appears to be heavily influenced by the Lada class, and is far more stealthy than the other PLAN submarines like Yuan, Song and Kilo class. From side-by-side shots with a Yuan submarine, we can determine this submarine to be one of the largest submarine classes in the world (comparable to Soryu class). If we go by past PLAN submarine classes, this boat (deemed Type 039B class by some) will probably take 3 years to sort out all of the problems and then start mass production. With the launching of this class, I think it is quite clear that PLAN no longer intends to import submarines from Russia. With the continued mass production of Yuan submarines in Wuchang and JiangNan shipyard, we should see see the complete phasing out of Romeo class and early Ming class submarine in the next 5 years.

7) Massive expansion of the fleet of the maritime agencies - I've written a couple blog entries this year about the maritime agencies this year, because they are really becoming influential in China's maritime dispute with neighboring countries. In the past year, we've seen China having continued disputes with Japan and ASEAN countries. As a result of these disputes, China Maritime Surveillance (CMS), Fishery law enforcement (FLEC) and Maritime safety agency (MSA) have really been getting funding to add new cutters to their fleet. I've recently reported that the largest ever MSA cutter is about to start construction in Wuchang shipyard. FLEC has also been getting some new cutters in the past year. None of these agencies have been expanding as fast as CMS. Just over this year and the start of next year alone, CMS is about to receive 4 new cutters of 1300 ton class from HP shipyard, 2 new cutters of 1700 ton class and 1 new cutter of 3500-4000 ton class from WuChang shipyard. The regional offices of CMS are also getting many 600 ton ships operate. All of this still pales in comparison to the ambitious expansion plan for CMS. It is planning to built over 30 cutters in the next 5 years and also get some new aerial assets. To be fair, I must point out that these are still civilian ships. Their designed speed tops out at around 20 knots and are not equipped with high calibre guns as on naval ships. It will be interesting to see how these agencies influence Chinese maritime policies in the coming years, because they are clearly becoming extremely influential.

8) Continued production of 054A class past original estimation - At one point, I was convinced that the 054A production run would end at 10 ships due to the number of diesel engine kits supplied by Pielstick. It appears that China has either gotten a much larger local assembly contract or have completely indigenized its production, because we've seen recently that an 11th 054A is in advanced stage of construction at HuangPu shipyard. I think that the 054A class has really proven itself to be perfect for the patrols to Gulf of Aden. They have had to send the same 054A frigates multiple times to Aden, because PLAN do not have enough of them in service. 054A would also be very important in any future PLAN carrier group or expedition group (although they are a little slow). At the current time, HP and HD shipyard can produce 054A at fast rate for very reasonable cost (probably < $200 million each), so PLAN has increased its production run. Over the next 5 years, we will be seeing Jianghu class been replaced by 054A class. This replacement truly indicates the change in PLAN. They are going from an archaic class that is barely capable of patrolling within the first chain of island to a new class that is fairly proficient in ASuW, ASW and AAW operations over blue waters. The mass production of 054A have made destroyer classes like 051B, 052, 052B and Sov obsolete, because it has more modern sensors/combat system and can conduct ASW and AAW at comparable or better level than them.

9) The appearance of the 056 class - I maybe getting ahead of myself, because we have not seen any conclusive photo of 056 yet. I have seen a model of 056 class last month and multiple reports that we will see mass production of this class soon. In many ways, I have been waiting for this class for a long time (that is a class between 022 and 054A). I do think that the increasing number of cutters are taking away some of the responsibilities of this 056 class like patrolling East China Sea and South China Sea. However, it appears that this class of ship will come into service to replace the roles of the old Type 037s and some Jianghu class.

10) New toys for the aviation arm of PLAN - In this past year, we have seen KJ-200 and other Y-8 special missions aircraft join service with PLAN aviation. They are important in any kind of operations near the shore, because they would be able to provide targeting information for ships like Type 022 FACs and aircraft like JH-7A. This is part of PLA's move for greater C4ISR capability. We have also seen the first regiment of J-10A and J-11BS for PLAN establishing this year along with another regiment of JH-7A. The addition of these new aircraft will help provide air cover for ships and striking power in conflicts within the first chain of islands (especially around Taiwan and East China Sea.

As I look back in 2010, it was a very fruitful year for PLAN. Many of its new toys like 052C, Type 071, 054A, Yuan class, Type 056 and the new minehunters have entered mass production or are about to enter mass production. They will replace the outdated class like Luda, Jianghu, Romeo, Type 037s and Type 6610. We've also seen one-off ships like the new submarine tender and the new ELINT ship joining service. These new ships are filled with new weapons, new sensors, new combat systems and are designed to operate much further away from the home base. We have already seen Type 071, 054/A and 052B/C class showing their ability to operate far away from home in their missions to the Gulf of Aden. We have also seen auxiliary ships like the Fuchi class replenishment ship and the Type 920 hospital ship operate far from home and been used to spread good wills to different third world nations. I think this is all part of PLAN's effort to expand its presence around the world. However, when I compare PLAN to Western navies, it is still very new to blue water operations and has a lot to do to catch up. At the same time, some other big name programs like the carrier project, the ASBM project and the conventional submarine program are continuing to make solid progress. These along with the mass produced classes are critical for possible conflicts with US over Taiwan, for maritimes disputes with its neighbours and blue water operations. The emergence of the civilian maritime agencies are also complicating China's maritime disputes. These are all areas that we can look forward to in

Smoke coming out of the furnace of Varyag?

It looks like there are smoke coming out of the furnace of Varyag. I think we are finally seeing the steam turbines getting turned on. I will let you guys be the judge.

China's newest cutter

There has been a lot of new constructions in the Chinese shipyards recently of new maritime patrol/law enforcement vessel. Here is a quick look at China's newest and biggest cutter design.

According to earlier articles, this cutter will be built and delivered in May of 2012 by the WuChang shipyard. This vessel will cost 350 million RMB (about $50 million). It will be 128.6 m long, 5418 ton in displacement with a maximum speed of 20.4 knots. It can sustain 16 knots from 10,000 nm. It will also have a hangar for a medium size helicopter and be able to land a large size helicopter. Please note that while this is a big step up compared to China's existing fleet, it is still inferior to the size/performance of PLH31 (the largest patrol vessel of Japanese Coast Guard)

This cutter will serve in Maritime Safety Administration (MSA). Most of the recent constructions we've seen are for the Chinese maritime surveillance(CMS). Please refer to my earlier post on Chinese maritime law enforcement to see the difference.

Latest on Z-10 and J-10

A couple of things before I get into this post. Things at work have really picked up recently and will stay that way in the foreseeable future. As the result of that, I will not be able to post as much during this time. You guys probably have noticed that by my absence this month. Also, I have concentrated far more on the navy the past couple of years and that is part of my move to spend less time speculating and more time just providing photographic evidences. Clearly, the naval shipbuilding program is a lot more visible at the moment than the military aircraft industry. Having said, we have seen some good news recently with regard to two of PLA's most important aerospace project: Z-10 and J-10.

Here is a couple of photos of thew new Z-10 (Z-10A???). The first three are up close shots of Z-10 carrying different weapon systems (including the really nice shot of PL-90) and the last photo shows Z-10's whole view with rocket launchers, 30 mm gun and ATGM/AAM launchers. We can also see a completely new designed nose turret compared to what it had before.

We know that they came out with Z-10 a while ago, but had to go back to the drawing board for some changes after the original engine PT6C-67C was no longer allowed to be used for it. I believe these new Z-10s are using the domestic WZ-9 engine, which has much less power than PT6C-67C. The new Z-10s appear to be much slender and slightly stealthier than the original design. I think the reduced profile has a lot to do with the less powerful engine.





The most interesting part are the photos below. They show that the new Z-10 has entered service in the 5th Army Aviation Regiment (LH-951xx) of Nanjing Military Region. From the numbering below, it appears that at least 8 units of this new Z-10 has joined service. On top of the original Z-10s that were delivered to army aviation in 2007, they probably have > 10 Z-10s in service by now. I'm not clear on how many helicopters are in each attack helo regiment of PLA, but there are 30-40 helicopters per regiment for smaller training utility helicopters like HC-120.





We have also seen some new and encouraging photos of J-10s. I got a photo in January of this year showing the first 4 J-10s delivered to the 26th regiment of PLAAF. This is the first picture we have of a J-10 with numbering from that regiment. I would say that this regiment should be fully equipped by now.

We also saw the first J-10 regiment in PLANAF. We can see the twin seater 83148 and the single seater 83143 in the next 2 photos. The number 8 indicates that this is part of PLANAF. The number 4 indicates that this is part of the 4th division of PLANAF and the number 3 indicates that this is the 3rd regiment of the 4th division. The other two numbers indicate that they are the number 13 and 18 of the regiment. This would indicate that the new regiment is located in Luqiao, which is under the East Sea Fleet and within striking distance of Taiwan. I do not believe that this batch of J-10s have any differences than the PLAAF J-10s. It is good to see that PLANAF is finally getting some 4th generation fighters jets outside of that Su-30MK2 regiments. A while ago, we also saw a bunch of J-11BS fighter jets in PLANAF colours outside of SAC. The other thing that we do not know is the size of the regiment. We know that PLAAF J-10 regiments generally have 28 aircraft (24 single and 4 twin seaters), but PLANAF regiments seem to be smaller in size than PLAAF ones.



The question is often how many J-10s are going into service and whether we will see new J-10 regiments formed for PLAAF. It appears from the photos below (from May) that there were at least 37 single seaters and a few twin seaters produced in the 5th batch of J-10s. The numbers on the J-10s are based on CAC designation. I believe the first digit indicates the batch # of the J-10 and the next 2 indicates the number of this aircraft in that batch. The lone twin-seated J-10 photo seems to indicate that twin-seaters have a different numbering mechanism. These J-10s were produced in the first half of this year imo and were delivered to the 26th PLAAF regiment and 12th PLANAF regiment.






The photos below show the 6th batch of J-10s going through the testing phase outside of CAC. I'm not sure how large this batch of J-10s will be, but it could be limited by the number of AL-31FNs that China has. There appears to be enough J-10s in this 6th batch to at least start forming a new regiment. I think they will need to place a new order for AL-31FNs soon, if WS-10A is still not ready for J-10 next year.