China's conventional submarine fleet

In the past few months, we have seen renewed activity around WuChang shipyard with the launching of numerous new conventional submarines. That got me interested in spending more time looking at China's diesel submarine fleet and how they are deployed. This blog entry will devote most of its energy on the 039 series, since that is currently the main work horse of PLAN. At this point, I really cannot answer questions like how quiet these submarines are, since I do not have that kind of classified data or have experience in signal management to give good estimates.

As you guys know, PLA Navy contains three fleet: North Sea Fleet, East Sea Fleet and South Sea Fleet. There seems to be 2 flotilla of submarines in each fleet. At the moment, we have some 033s, 035s, 039s, 039As and kilos serving at these flotilla.

The Type 033 class submarines are basically the domestic productions of Romeo Class submarines from USSR. The production of 033s went on through the 60s and 70s before finally stopping in 1984. It is obviously an extremely old submarine class and have mostly retired from service. Currently, they are still serving at some flotilla in training roles.

The Type 035 Ming class submarines were the first domestically designed submarine. They were developed based on Romeo class and had a lot of problems early on. The original variant of 035s were error-prone and retired from the service by the 80s. Following that, a 035G variant was developed. This variant started production in 1987, a full 18 years after the first 035 started production, because Chinese military development basically paused in those years. The 035G and the subsequent 035G1 variant continued production until 1996. This class is currently in service in much of the NSF flotilla with the 2nd and 12th submarine flotilla. A following class 035B (also known as 035G2 in some circles) were produced between 1997 and 2001. About 8 of these boats were produced for the SSF and they are currently serving in the 72nd submarine flotilla. These boats were built after the first 039, so they adopted a lot of technologies from Song class like Anechoic tiles, more advanced fire control systems and the ability to fire more advanced weaponry. In fact, a recent article has shown that 035B submarines are capable of OTH strikes (through YJ-82 I assume). Ming class also has the dubious honour as the submarine that caused the deaths of its entire crew. So even though it is still serviceable for coastal patrols, this class is not fit for front line duty.

In the early 90s, PLA took advantage of the low Russian defense funding to import large quantity of highly capable former Soviet weapon systems. One of the most recent imports is the Kilo class. As early as 1995, China received two units of project 877EKM (kilo class) from the Russians. These two were followed by two units of the improved kilos (project 636) in the late 90s. These were highly capable systems that were more than one generation ahead of anything in service with PLAN. They were also capable of firing heavy Russian torpedoes that were a generation ahead of what was available at that time for 035 class. In response to possible Taiwanese import of submarines from US, PLAN ordered 8 more improved kilo class (project 636M) in 2002. These boats had new fire control system, French Sonar and the ability to launch the supersonic Klub-S AShM. Eight of the Kilo submarines were assigned to the 42nd Submarine flotilla of East Sea Fleet (No. 364 to 371) and the other four were assigned to the 32nd Submarine flotilla of the South Sea Fleet (No. 372 to 375). In the recent years, the Kilo class have lost some luster with PLAN. We hear about several early failures with launching Klub-S missiles and only see pictures of Kilo submarines at the dockside or in shipyards for repairs). I don't know if it has become paper tiger, but PLAN does not seem to be using its capabilities fully.

As China imported Kilo submarines in the 90s, they also started the construction of a new generation of submarine (aka the Type 039 Song class). The first boat had a lot of problems after its launching in 1995 and did not join service until 1998. Even then, it seemed to be quite outdated design compared to the Kilo class. Major redesign was done during that time and an improved variant, the 039G variant, came out between 2001 and 2003. The easiest way to tell from the original 039 boat (No. 320) and remaining 039 variants is the removal of the stepped sail structure. PLAN only ordered 3 039G submarines (No. 321 to 323) before making further changes and starting mass production of 039G1 variant. Here are some of the changes courtesy of Crobato:

• The G1 has only a single line of sink holes near the front bow. The G has three lines.
  
• The G has a continuous sink hole line behind the sail. In the G1 it is staggered.
  
• The back of the G model where the sail meets the hull is webbed and shaped with a curve. The back of the G1 model where the sail meets the hull is just plain straight.
  

About 12 boat of 039G1 variant (No. 314 to 319 and 324 to 329) were produced at JiangNan shipyard and Wuchang shipyard from 2004 to 2006. Please note that I am guessing with some of the number of these submarines, because the number of the boats are almost never on the released photos. At the moment, the 22nd Submarine Flotilla of the East Sea Fleet is made entirely of Song class. I believe they have No. 320-323, 314, 317-319. Here is a photo of that flotilla:

Four of the 039G1 variant joined with 4 636M in the 32nd Submarine Flotilla of the South Sea Fleet. Please note that 324 and 325 were originally in the 22nd Flotilla, so some sources still have them listed in that flotilla. Here is an image of 2 039G1 and 4 636M from this year.

And finally, 4 039G1 boats (No. 315, 316, 327, 328) joined 4 035G boats in the 2nd Submarine Flotilla of the North Sea Fleet. Here are some pictures of those boats together. Fortunately, we can actually see the number on these submarines, but I've had no such luck with other Song class photos.


At this point, Song submarine have become the work horse of PLAN. We constantly see pictures of one or more Song submarine out in the sea. The famous incident a few years ago involved a Song class submarine surfacing next to Kitty Hawk. That incident shows that Song submarines are venturing further and further away from the home base. This storyline forms an interesting contrast to the pictures of Kilo submarines sitting by the dockside. It also probably explains why China has not been interested in purchasing more Russian submarines.

In 2004, the lead boat of the 039A Yuan class (No. 330) was launched in WuChang shipyard while Song class was in the middle of mass production. This boat showed some Kilo influence with the hump, but also retained much of the features of 039 class. It is apparently also the first PLAN class using AIP system. It took a couple of years for this new class of submarine to sort out all of the problems. Similar to 039 class, a new variant of 039A came out a few years later with some changes from the first boat. Please see the photo below for the differences between the lead boat and the second boat:

I think that the trial period for 039A class was shorter and changes from first boat to second boat were fewer, because the leap from 039 to 039A was much less than the leap from 035 to 039 class. A total of 3 new 039A boats were produced from 2007 to 2008 to join the original 039A in a new flotilla. The picture below shows a flotilla with 3 Yuan class and 1 Song class.

I believe this was taken before the 4th Yuan was delivered to PLAN. I do not know where this flotilla is located, although I suspect it is a new flotilla established for East Sea Fleet. The Yuan class seemed to have followed Song class of one lead ship, 3 following variant and then more mass production. After a gap of 2 years, we recently have seen 2 new Yuan submarines launched in WuChang shipyard as shown in the photos below.


I cannot easily tell the difference between these boats and the previous 3 due to lack of more quality photos, but I did read that the interior had changed a lot in the new boats. As we move forward, I would expect that many new Yuan submarines will come out of WuChang and JiangNan shipyard in the coming 2 years. The production of this final variant of Yuan will probably be either 8 or 12 units based on the production path of the Song class. They will probably be assigned to the East Sea Fleet and the South Sea Fleet. At which point, the 035B submarines could be transferred to North Sea Fleet to replace the older 035G boats. By that time, 039/G and 039A class submarines will form most of the conventional submarine fleet.

And finally, a new class of submarine was launched in WuChang shipyard near the end of last year. There have been some discussions on this blog regarding to this new class when the lead boat first came out. Here is probably the most up close and detailed photo of this submarine.

Based on this photo and side by side comparisons with Yuan submarine, we can see that this is quite a large submarine (near the displacement of Soryu class). It seems to be designed to operate further offshore than Song and Yuan class. I guess this is part of PLAN's move to operate further and longer away from the shore. In the next couple of years, we will find out more about this class and its purpose. I would think that if this is a successful design, it will follow the production path of Song and Yuan class. By sometimes late this decade, it is possible that PLAN submarine force will have moved on completely from 60s Soviet era designs. That would make submarine the first type of large weaponry in PLA to do so. I think this truly shows the emphasis that PLAN has placed on conventional submarine fleet.

J-20

The last week has really been an exciting time for PLAAF fans, because real photos of J-20 started appearing on various Chinese military forums online. I think it is also time for me to butt in with some little thoughts I have on anything J-20 related.

First of all, I would not characterize myself as knowledgeable in stealth technology or aerodynamics. When I look at J-20, I certainly see something designed to compete against other 5th generation aircraft out there. But if you were to ask me whether I think this is more stealthy than PAK-FA or more maneuverable than F-22, I simply would not be able to give you an answer on that.

However, I do find this to be an extremely interesting development. Here are some things that I find really interesting:

1. Transparency - It is really shocking to me that the photos for J-20 came out this early. Looking back, the first real photos of J-10 came out 3 or 4 years after the first flight. Even after the first photos came out, most photos that we saw were PS'd photos or CGs. The much less hyped J-10B's first photo came out 3 months after the first flight. Now, we see J-20's first photos coming out before the first flight even happened. I think it is a combination of modern technology and increased transparency from PLA. We see many people lining up with their cameras outside of CAC taking photos with no sighting of security around them. At the same time, we see the Chinese military forums allowing these photos to be published as soon as they are available. I think this shows PLA is more willing to allow high profile projects to be unveiled earlier on. The mysterious new conventional submarine in WuChang shipyard was unveiled as soon as it got launched. Maybe PLA will become as transparent as US military in the future. But until then, they seem to just be comfortable releasing details of their new projects through internet forums and camera phones.
   



2. Size - I think one thing that really shocked a lot of people is how large J-20 is or at least how large it appears to be. The original photos lead certain people like Bill Sweetman to conclude that J-20 has "overall length of 75 ft. and a wingspan of 45 ft. or more, which would suggest a takeoff weight in the 75,000-80,000-lb. class with no external load". With those assumptions, many concluded this to be designed in the role of fighter-bomber as F-111. However, recent analysis on Chinese bbs of the size of J-20 vs truck beside it compared to the size of J-10 vs the same truck yielded the conclusion that J-20 is more likely around 19 to 20 m long, which would make it shorter than flankers. Even when we factor in what appears to be greater fuel load and internal weapon bay, it should still be about the same size as flankers. Personally, I kind of see J-20 as replacing the role of flankers in PLAAF in the future. It would have to be capable of handling more long range strike missions than flankers, but it would most likely serve as the heavy fighter jet in hi-lo combination.
   



3. Prototype or technology demonstrator - Another question that some have raised is whether this is a prototype or a technology demonstrator. Back in 2009 on a CCTV interview, He Weirong, deputy commander of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, said that J-20 would be flown in 2010-11 and be operational in 2017-19. I would say from that interview that this is the first couple of prototypes. However, I would also say that the final production version could have a lot of changes from this original prototype. After all, this is China's first attempt at developing a 5th generation fighter jet. They will have a lot to figure out and make fixes to initial design issues before the production version is settled down. More than anything, the first flight will clearly be conducted with something other than WS-15. If WS-15 is intended to be the engine for J-20, then some more changes + test flights will need to be done with WS-15 fitted J-20 before that version achieves operational status.
   



4. Engine - This is probably one of the biggest mysteries surrounding J-20. What is the engine that it is using right now? We know that WS-15 is still years away from being ready. We know that AL-31F and FWS-10 would be vastly underpowered options for J-20. So, I would think the most obvious solution in the early stages of testing would either be 117S or some upgraded variants of FWS-10. Since upgraded variants of FWS-10 are not ready yet, 117S is most likely the engine on the first prototype. There has been a lot of talks about worsening China/Russia military relationships due to cloning issues, but I do think turbofan engine is one area where the cooperation is still quite beneficial for both sides. As we move forward, I think it will be interesting to see how the engine situation will change over time. Will 117S be the engine for J-20 until WS-15 becomes available? Will the initial production J-20s use upgraded variants of FWS-10? When will WS-15 be ready and how long will it take to do so? These are all important things to look forward to.
   



5. Industrial impact - A lot of people have called J-10 program the "Apollo program" of China's aviation industry. I have a feeling that the J-20 program will become that way too. In order to have a successful 5th generation design, J-20 will have to yield advances in stealth technology, aerodynamics, materialogy, avionics, missiles and propulsion. The J-10 program brought about an entire new generation of aerospace engineers for Chengdu Aircraft Corp (CAC) that are the driving forces behind all of the recent CAC projects. Many of the engineers are in their 30s and already have worked on many high priority programs. They should have the best years of development ahead of them. At the same time, producers of J-10's subsystems across the country also became more capable. The RnD for J-20 project should do the same thing for CAC and other suppliers.
   



6. Help from civilian programs? - In many ways, China's current civilian programs will help J-20 and vice versa. In the area of electronics, the most recent CIDEX 2010 exhibition clearly showed that the advances in civilian electronics in manufacturing and design have carried over to the military side. We have also seen similar improvements in avionics/radar for recent Chinese aircraft projects. At the same time, I think the C919 will also be very helpful toward J-20 program. As part of C919 program's involvement with Western suppliers, they will learn modern project management methods, purchase/develop more advanced production tooling and manufacturing process. These are all knowledge that can be transferred to J-20. Just as importantly, the suppliers for C919 will also work with local Chinese manufacturers to produce subsystems. This will produce a whole new network of suppliers that would be able to produce high quality subsystems for J-20. And of course, the advances in J-20 program will also be able to make these suppliers more competitive in civilian programs. Problems for the FWS-10 program have often been attributed to not enough testing in the development phase and production line problems. I would think that experience working with MTU and GE in producing propulsion units for C919 could also be transferred to allow the development and production of more reliable WS-15 engines. I can go on and on here, but there are plenty of examples where civilian programs could help out J-20 and vice versa. We have seen in recent year that successes in civilian shipbuilding have really been instrumental in the mass production of naval ships. I believe that successes in civilian aviation program can do the same for J-20 and WS-15 programs.
   

Top stories of 2010 for PLAN

After a couple of relatively quiet years for PLAN, 2010 was the return of naval shipbuilding boom that was prevalent in the middle part of this decade. There were many stories from this past year, but I decided to pick 10 stories to look over.

1) Finally seeing real and tangible progress in the carrier program - We have seen some movements toward the completion of Varyag in the recent year and news about the start of naval aviation school. This year, we saw official acknowledgment of China's carrier program in a book by the State Oceanic Administration, which marks the first such acknowledgment by the Chinese government. We also saw real changes in Varyag throughout the year. We saw a lot of work on the island, including the installation of some important sensors. We saw close-in defense systems like HQ-10, Type 730 gun and Multi-rocket launchers installed. It's hard to think China will put this much sensor and weaponry on Varyag unless they have more plans for it beyond just a training ship. And finally, we saw smoke coming out of the furnace and the auxiliary propulsion unit very recently. I would really not be surprised if this thing gets starts conducting sea trials sometimes next year. On top of that, we are also seeing the first 2 Ka-31s delivered to PLAN from Russia. These are 2 of the 9 early warning helicopters on order to be used on Varyag and possibly other aircraft carriers. We've also seen the Z-8 AEW project under way with the first prototype going through sea tests. I believe a fixed wing AEW project based on the Y-7 airframe is also in development. This does raise the question of what roles do each of these early warning platforms play in the future of PLAN. Will they be used on the Type 071 platform at some point? Will they be used on a future helo carrier platform? Or will they only be used on aircraft carriers.

2) Seeing the introduction of many systems that could be used in the ASBM program - Since we first reported on this program in 2009, ASBM has been mentioned prominently by every article talking about the rise of Chinese threat to US navy in East Asian waters. In many ways, we are seeing many new systems coming out that would be very useful to the ASBM program. In the Zhuhai air show, Chinese weapon manufacturers were openly showing a video of a new type of indigenously developed UAV spotting US carrier group with the satellites' assistance and then feeding the information to shore based anti-ship missiles to attack those targets. I'm not sure how much of this capability has been realized, but it was an unusually open and suggestive display of intention. We saw 5 launches of Beidou Navigation satellites this year, 1 launch of a new data relay satellites and many launches of EO satellites in the Yaogan series, which could all be used to help find targets, relay targeting info and help increase accuracy of missiles. On top of that, the many new recon UAVs and UCAVs shown this year in the Zhuhai air show can all help in identifying targets originally picked up by OTH radars.

3) The restart of 052C production - When 052C class first came out in 2003, it was revolutionary by PLAN standard. These were the first ships to have long ranged vertical launched air defense system. They were the first ships to have modern AESA multi-functional radar and other modern ESM/ECM sensors. And most imortantly, they were the first to have modern combat system. In fact, many China threat analysts dubbed this the Chinese Aegis system. After these ships were launched, they had so many issues to sort out that it took another 7 years before the next ship in this series came out. I'm not sure if this is an indication that China's first attempt at a modern area defense combat system set the bar too high (it normally only takes 3 years or less for other new PLAN ships to work out issues with new capabilities) or that China's previous combat system level was too low. Either way, we have yet to notice any real changes to the new 052C units other than reportedly using domestic production of GT-25000 gas turbines. Many people have expected to see larger improvements like from 052B to 052C. In many ways, I think this is a good sign indicating that they took a lot of time sorting out problems with the new air defense system and really learning lessons from them. It is reported that this 4 052Cs will be produced in this batch. This would mark the start of the mass production of modern DDGs for PLAN to replace the very old and outdated Luda DDGs.

4) Seeing the start of Type 071 mass production after achieving full operational capability - This has been really big year for the 071 class. While 998, the lead ship, has been in service for 3 years now, it spent the first 2 years without the LCAC-like air cushioned hovercraft that are designed for it. This April, the first Chinese LCAC finished all of its sea trials and joined service with 998. In the coming month, we would see 998 and its "LCAC" being deployed to Gulf of Aden. In that deployment, we would see pictures of LCAC and fast patrol boat coming in and out of the well deck. We saw pictures of three helicopters (2 Z8s + 1 Z-9C) on its helipad at the same time about to takeoff and land. These may be quite routine for USMC, but are all first time achievements for PLAN. We also confirmed that the dimensions of Type 071 are about the same as the San Antonio class. As 998 was doing patrols in Aden, the second unit of Type 071 was quietly being assembled in HuDong shipyard. By the end of the year, the second unit was also launched. I found it really amazing the speed at which they assembled the blocks and launched this ship. They seemed to have made some minor changes from the lead ship for the mass production phase of this class. It appears that PLAN is quite satisfied with Type 071 and is starting a large production run. As we move forward, it will be interesting to see how PLA intends to use this class of ships in the future.

5) Continued presence of PLAN around the world and increased cooperation in Gulf of Aden - I don't spend a lot of time talking about PLAN training and deployments, but I do think this year also represented a surge in PLAN cooperation with other navies. For the past year, China has continued sending its latest warships to the Gulf of Aden. We see most of the 054 and 054A class ships being tested out there. They are also having more cooperation with Western navies to help with patrols in that area. According to a Jamestown article, PLAN is also setting up several supply depots along the way to help maintain its patrols. Previously, they had only been protecting Chinese commercial ships. And after deployments to Aden, these ships normally make port calls to different countries on their way back to China. The only ship of the Type 920 hospital ship class, 866, also made a trip to different countries in Africa and Asia as part of PLAN's show of soft power. On top of anti-piracy related activities, we've also seen more naval exercises in the past year with countries like Australia and Thailand.

6) The appearance of the new conventional submarine in Wuhan shipyard - Earlier this year, we saw the launching of a mysterious new class of conventional submarine in Wuchang shipyard. As we've discussed in this blog, this submarine is significantly changed from the Yuan class submarine. It appears to be heavily influenced by the Lada class, and is far more stealthy than the other PLAN submarines like Yuan, Song and Kilo class. From side-by-side shots with a Yuan submarine, we can determine this submarine to be one of the largest submarine classes in the world (comparable to Soryu class). If we go by past PLAN submarine classes, this boat (deemed Type 039B class by some) will probably take 3 years to sort out all of the problems and then start mass production. With the launching of this class, I think it is quite clear that PLAN no longer intends to import submarines from Russia. With the continued mass production of Yuan submarines in Wuchang and JiangNan shipyard, we should see see the complete phasing out of Romeo class and early Ming class submarine in the next 5 years.

7) Massive expansion of the fleet of the maritime agencies - I've written a couple blog entries this year about the maritime agencies this year, because they are really becoming influential in China's maritime dispute with neighboring countries. In the past year, we've seen China having continued disputes with Japan and ASEAN countries. As a result of these disputes, China Maritime Surveillance (CMS), Fishery law enforcement (FLEC) and Maritime safety agency (MSA) have really been getting funding to add new cutters to their fleet. I've recently reported that the largest ever MSA cutter is about to start construction in Wuchang shipyard. FLEC has also been getting some new cutters in the past year. None of these agencies have been expanding as fast as CMS. Just over this year and the start of next year alone, CMS is about to receive 4 new cutters of 1300 ton class from HP shipyard, 2 new cutters of 1700 ton class and 1 new cutter of 3500-4000 ton class from WuChang shipyard. The regional offices of CMS are also getting many 600 ton ships operate. All of this still pales in comparison to the ambitious expansion plan for CMS. It is planning to built over 30 cutters in the next 5 years and also get some new aerial assets. To be fair, I must point out that these are still civilian ships. Their designed speed tops out at around 20 knots and are not equipped with high calibre guns as on naval ships. It will be interesting to see how these agencies influence Chinese maritime policies in the coming years, because they are clearly becoming extremely influential.

8) Continued production of 054A class past original estimation - At one point, I was convinced that the 054A production run would end at 10 ships due to the number of diesel engine kits supplied by Pielstick. It appears that China has either gotten a much larger local assembly contract or have completely indigenized its production, because we've seen recently that an 11th 054A is in advanced stage of construction at HuangPu shipyard. I think that the 054A class has really proven itself to be perfect for the patrols to Gulf of Aden. They have had to send the same 054A frigates multiple times to Aden, because PLAN do not have enough of them in service. 054A would also be very important in any future PLAN carrier group or expedition group (although they are a little slow). At the current time, HP and HD shipyard can produce 054A at fast rate for very reasonable cost (probably < $200 million each), so PLAN has increased its production run. Over the next 5 years, we will be seeing Jianghu class been replaced by 054A class. This replacement truly indicates the change in PLAN. They are going from an archaic class that is barely capable of patrolling within the first chain of island to a new class that is fairly proficient in ASuW, ASW and AAW operations over blue waters. The mass production of 054A have made destroyer classes like 051B, 052, 052B and Sov obsolete, because it has more modern sensors/combat system and can conduct ASW and AAW at comparable or better level than them.

9) The appearance of the 056 class - I maybe getting ahead of myself, because we have not seen any conclusive photo of 056 yet. I have seen a model of 056 class last month and multiple reports that we will see mass production of this class soon. In many ways, I have been waiting for this class for a long time (that is a class between 022 and 054A). I do think that the increasing number of cutters are taking away some of the responsibilities of this 056 class like patrolling East China Sea and South China Sea. However, it appears that this class of ship will come into service to replace the roles of the old Type 037s and some Jianghu class.

10) New toys for the aviation arm of PLAN - In this past year, we have seen KJ-200 and other Y-8 special missions aircraft join service with PLAN aviation. They are important in any kind of operations near the shore, because they would be able to provide targeting information for ships like Type 022 FACs and aircraft like JH-7A. This is part of PLA's move for greater C4ISR capability. We have also seen the first regiment of J-10A and J-11BS for PLAN establishing this year along with another regiment of JH-7A. The addition of these new aircraft will help provide air cover for ships and striking power in conflicts within the first chain of islands (especially around Taiwan and East China Sea.

As I look back in 2010, it was a very fruitful year for PLAN. Many of its new toys like 052C, Type 071, 054A, Yuan class, Type 056 and the new minehunters have entered mass production or are about to enter mass production. They will replace the outdated class like Luda, Jianghu, Romeo, Type 037s and Type 6610. We've also seen one-off ships like the new submarine tender and the new ELINT ship joining service. These new ships are filled with new weapons, new sensors, new combat systems and are designed to operate much further away from the home base. We have already seen Type 071, 054/A and 052B/C class showing their ability to operate far away from home in their missions to the Gulf of Aden. We have also seen auxiliary ships like the Fuchi class replenishment ship and the Type 920 hospital ship operate far from home and been used to spread good wills to different third world nations. I think this is all part of PLAN's effort to expand its presence around the world. However, when I compare PLAN to Western navies, it is still very new to blue water operations and has a lot to do to catch up. At the same time, some other big name programs like the carrier project, the ASBM project and the conventional submarine program are continuing to make solid progress. These along with the mass produced classes are critical for possible conflicts with US over Taiwan, for maritimes disputes with its neighbours and blue water operations. The emergence of the civilian maritime agencies are also complicating China's maritime disputes. These are all areas that we can look forward to in

Smoke coming out of the furnace of Varyag?

It looks like there are smoke coming out of the furnace of Varyag. I think we are finally seeing the steam turbines getting turned on. I will let you guys be the judge.

China's newest cutter

There has been a lot of new constructions in the Chinese shipyards recently of new maritime patrol/law enforcement vessel. Here is a quick look at China's newest and biggest cutter design.

According to earlier articles, this cutter will be built and delivered in May of 2012 by the WuChang shipyard. This vessel will cost 350 million RMB (about $50 million). It will be 128.6 m long, 5418 ton in displacement with a maximum speed of 20.4 knots. It can sustain 16 knots from 10,000 nm. It will also have a hangar for a medium size helicopter and be able to land a large size helicopter. Please note that while this is a big step up compared to China's existing fleet, it is still inferior to the size/performance of PLH31 (the largest patrol vessel of Japanese Coast Guard)

This cutter will serve in Maritime Safety Administration (MSA). Most of the recent constructions we've seen are for the Chinese maritime surveillance(CMS). Please refer to my earlier post on Chinese maritime law enforcement to see the difference.

Latest on Z-10 and J-10

A couple of things before I get into this post. Things at work have really picked up recently and will stay that way in the foreseeable future. As the result of that, I will not be able to post as much during this time. You guys probably have noticed that by my absence this month. Also, I have concentrated far more on the navy the past couple of years and that is part of my move to spend less time speculating and more time just providing photographic evidences. Clearly, the naval shipbuilding program is a lot more visible at the moment than the military aircraft industry. Having said, we have seen some good news recently with regard to two of PLA's most important aerospace project: Z-10 and J-10.

Here is a couple of photos of thew new Z-10 (Z-10A???). The first three are up close shots of Z-10 carrying different weapon systems (including the really nice shot of PL-90) and the last photo shows Z-10's whole view with rocket launchers, 30 mm gun and ATGM/AAM launchers. We can also see a completely new designed nose turret compared to what it had before.

We know that they came out with Z-10 a while ago, but had to go back to the drawing board for some changes after the original engine PT6C-67C was no longer allowed to be used for it. I believe these new Z-10s are using the domestic WZ-9 engine, which has much less power than PT6C-67C. The new Z-10s appear to be much slender and slightly stealthier than the original design. I think the reduced profile has a lot to do with the less powerful engine.





The most interesting part are the photos below. They show that the new Z-10 has entered service in the 5th Army Aviation Regiment (LH-951xx) of Nanjing Military Region. From the numbering below, it appears that at least 8 units of this new Z-10 has joined service. On top of the original Z-10s that were delivered to army aviation in 2007, they probably have > 10 Z-10s in service by now. I'm not clear on how many helicopters are in each attack helo regiment of PLA, but there are 30-40 helicopters per regiment for smaller training utility helicopters like HC-120.





We have also seen some new and encouraging photos of J-10s. I got a photo in January of this year showing the first 4 J-10s delivered to the 26th regiment of PLAAF. This is the first picture we have of a J-10 with numbering from that regiment. I would say that this regiment should be fully equipped by now.

We also saw the first J-10 regiment in PLANAF. We can see the twin seater 83148 and the single seater 83143 in the next 2 photos. The number 8 indicates that this is part of PLANAF. The number 4 indicates that this is part of the 4th division of PLANAF and the number 3 indicates that this is the 3rd regiment of the 4th division. The other two numbers indicate that they are the number 13 and 18 of the regiment. This would indicate that the new regiment is located in Luqiao, which is under the East Sea Fleet and within striking distance of Taiwan. I do not believe that this batch of J-10s have any differences than the PLAAF J-10s. It is good to see that PLANAF is finally getting some 4th generation fighters jets outside of that Su-30MK2 regiments. A while ago, we also saw a bunch of J-11BS fighter jets in PLANAF colours outside of SAC. The other thing that we do not know is the size of the regiment. We know that PLAAF J-10 regiments generally have 28 aircraft (24 single and 4 twin seaters), but PLANAF regiments seem to be smaller in size than PLAAF ones.



The question is often how many J-10s are going into service and whether we will see new J-10 regiments formed for PLAAF. It appears from the photos below (from May) that there were at least 37 single seaters and a few twin seaters produced in the 5th batch of J-10s. The numbers on the J-10s are based on CAC designation. I believe the first digit indicates the batch # of the J-10 and the next 2 indicates the number of this aircraft in that batch. The lone twin-seated J-10 photo seems to indicate that twin-seaters have a different numbering mechanism. These J-10s were produced in the first half of this year imo and were delivered to the 26th PLAAF regiment and 12th PLANAF regiment.






The photos below show the 6th batch of J-10s going through the testing phase outside of CAC. I'm not sure how large this batch of J-10s will be, but it could be limited by the number of AL-31FNs that China has. There appears to be enough J-10s in this 6th batch to at least start forming a new regiment. I think they will need to place a new order for AL-31FNs soon, if WS-10A is still not ready for J-10 next year.

Updates around Chinese shipyards

There has been a lot of news from the Zhuhai airshow regarding Chinese UAVs, anti-ship missiles and PGMs with regard to attacking US carrier group. I'm hoping to get to that once the show is over, but there has been a lot of movement from Chinese shipyard recently. I'm just going to give a short look at those movements.

First of all, the minehunter that was shown in a previous entry has now been launched from JiangNan shipyard.


Secondly, the second ship in the Type 071 class has also been launched in the past 2 days. I find the progress for this ship to be quite remarkable, because it was still in large blocks as recent as 3 months ago. Overall, the sensors and weapons fit do not appear to have changed, but there are a couple of minor changes to the hull (if you compare the bridge, you can see the difference). The question now is whether or not they are planning to launch more ships of this class. I would say that this class has started mass production, so we are likely to see more Type 071s come out in the next couple of years from HuDong shipyard.




And finally, we have some really nice updated photos out of Dalian shipyard. We see more work on the island and on the deck. I finally see smoke coming out. I don't know if that's exhaust from the stack or just some testing of auxiliary diesel generators. Either way, there are some serious work going on inside the island.




The other thing we can see is wide installations of Type 730 CIWS and HQ-10 (Chinese version of SeaRAM) on Varyag. They are installed in the 4 locations that Kashtan and AK-630 used to be installed on Admiral K class. In each of those locations, the 2 Kashtan + 1 AK-630 (maybe 2 AK-630 in a couple of spots) are now replaced by 1 Type 730, 1 HQ-10 and 1 mysterious installation (appears to be some kind multi-purpose rocket launcher for decoy purpose). I'm waiting to see if any VLS installations will appear in these locations, because Admiral K also had 6 VLS of SA-N-9 SAM beside each pair of Kashtan CIWS.



This is a shot of the Sea Eagle radar on top of Varyag. It seems to be a different variant compared to what we see on 054A.