Aircraft Carrier and SSBN

There has also been some news going out on aircraft carrier and SSBN. First, let's look at aircraft carriers, here is a photo of Varyag from recent times.


Now, we have seen numerous articles talking about China getting ready to build aircraft carrier. I have this article from kanwa's recent article.


This is not saying much, except that switchboard being ordered for aircraft carrier. Afterward, it commented on the possible shipyards for building the carrier. And it also talks about the welding equipment (I think) used for Chinese military ships.

From what I can gather on some of the more reliable sources on Chinese military webs, the indigenous aircraft project is known as the Project 048.

In terms of the supplier, I found a possible list a while back, don't know how accurate it is:
弹射器、拦阻索、特种甲板钢------德阳二重集团（已交付或部分交付）
catapult, arresting gear, special steel deck - Deyang 2nd heavy limited - I think this is the website for one of the subsidiary of this company?
http://www.ldjcj.cn/newEbiz1/EbizPortalFG/portal/html/index.html
This place is somewhere in Szechuan
fully delivered or party delivered already
舰体------------沪东中华集团 长兴岛（未知）
ship hull - Hudong Zhonghua in Changxin (no confirmation)

舰用轴承--------哈尔滨轴承集团 （已交付）
Ship bearing - Harbin Bearing Limited (already delivered)
This is their website http://www.bearinghrb.com/

锅炉配件--------哈尔滨锅炉厂 （已交付)
Boiler accessories - Harbin Boiler factory (already delivered)
website http://www.hbc.com.cn/

特种舰艇板材----鞍山钢铁、宝山钢铁 （已交付）
special ship plate - Anshan steel http://www.ceie.com.cn/ (delivered)
Baoshan steel - http://www.baosteel.com

舰载机----------601所 （在研）
naval fighter - SAC (in development)

舰艇设计--------中船重工701所 （技术冻结或已定型）
Ship design - CSIC 701 institute (finalized design)

配套舰船--------江南重工、沪东中华 长兴岛 、大连重工、黄埔造船（已开工）
escorts .... you guys know

配套核潜艇------葫芦岛厂、江南重工 长兴岛 （已开工或准备开工）
submarines - you guys also know

辅助舰----------沪东中华 长兴岛 、黄埔造船、广船（已开工）
replenishment ship - 886/887

训练舰----------大连重工 （已开工）
training ship - Dalian - Varyag

For the steel making part, there are basically 2 steel makers that have already delivered steel for the carrier and a third one that has yet to finish. Once everything is done, they will assess which one meets the requirements.

As for nuclear submarine, we've heard about the 094 being found on satellite imaging by FAS recently. Now, I don't have access to the satellite imaging, but I'm still unconvinced on this. There has been much speculation that the newly discovered ballistic submarine is 092 mod rather than 094. I think the only fair thing to say at this point is to not jump the gun either way. Kanwa mentioned something about 096 design being almost finished in the current edition of Kanwa. There has been one supplier that accidentally revealed it's part of the 095 SSN project a while back, but we have not found anything similar for 096.

Thoughts on recent pla development.

For the past month, we haven't had any new worthy photos coming out, but there are some new designs being talked about. In particular, Richard Fisher's recent article listed several possible new programs. http://www.strategycenter.net/research/pubID.163/pub_detail.asp

First, the mysterious 081 (don't want to get in a debate on whether this is a LHD or LPH)
Now, some form of helo carrier have been discussed on Chinese military bbs for a while. And for sure, there is a need for something like this in PLAN, but there are some major fundamental problems too. The problem is the lack of aerial assets that can go on such a ship. Currently, the domestic options are Z-9C and the naval variant of Z-8F (which just go recently unveiled) and the import options are Ka28/31. Back in 2006, there was a major deal between China/Russia widely discussed for 20 Ka-31 and 40 ka-29. Since then, we haven't heard much about it, since the military cooperation between the two countries seemed to have stalled this year. So, we are down to a helicopter that's too small, a helicopter that is too old and a helicopter that is slight old and a little inaccessible. In the near future, Z-15 and the 10 tonne helicopter under development are possible options in the future. Either way, having a capable naval helicopter has always been an issue for PLAN.

Next, the so called new frigate that China will be building. Richard Fisher stated in his article
"According the French and German sources interviewed at IMDEX, the PLAN is developing a new class of frigate to accompany the Type 054A air defense frigate now in series production. There was apparently a competition between the engines of the French firm SEMT Pielstick and Germany’s MTU, to provide the new diesel engine which will be paired with a gas turbine. MTU won. The new frigate will use two diesels and two turbines, a conventional configuration that could support a range of mission requirements. But the sources interviewed had no insights regarding the size, mission and configuration for this new ship."
In my opinion, this is not a new class per se, but rather a follow up variant (054B). So I think using CODOG arrangement means the following:

• Larger displacement -> more space for weaponary
  
• Quieter propulsion -> better for ASW purposes
• Improved sensors -> As we saw on 891, an entire new set of sensors are being tested. Maybe it's going on to the remaining 054A or maybe they are for 054B

Finally, there has been some news from the aircraft engine side. It has been brought up recently that Shenyang Liming and Salyut are improving their cooperation in the area of aerospace engine. It was mentionned that the variant 99M is possibly presented for J-10. According to certain sources, Salyut mentioned that China funded part of its development. There are certain requirements for 99M that seemed to be more important for PLAAF than RuAF. Currently, there are speculations on whether or not this cooperation means just sales or licensed production and ToT. We will have to wait and see how this turns out.

Latest updates

First, on the planes front, there are a couple of developments to watch out for:

• We can start out with some new project at SAC posted on the official AVIC website http://www.avic1.com.cn/chinese/xwzx/detail/20070529_9.htm
• It basically talks about a new airframe being delivered for static testing. Now, normally static testing in PLAAF is the second prototype. So that probably means this class so far has the first prototype + this 02 prototype. It doesn't seem to be J-11B, since that should be going into service this year. So, it would have to either be SAC's J-11BS project (I guess Chinese attempt to get something in the class of su-34/F-15E) or their naval fighter project. I personally didn't expect it to proceed this quickly, but who knows.
• The second part is news from CAC side, there was a while back that xinhua mentioned a major project at CAC http://news.xinhuanet.com/mil/2007-04/30/content_6046552.htm
• Now, it seems like this is the major change on J-10. I guess the second variant after the original J-10 variant, not the much talked about twin engined J-10 project
• A couple of things, according to a "big shrimp" on Chinese BBS, this project will be much better than the original J-10, using WS-10 series + TVC nozzle, improved aerodynamics, more usage of composites, generally a more stealthy design (not sure whether internal carriage will be done), more network centric/better situation awareness, possibly built in IRST, improved radar (maybe too early for AESA, not sure). But the gist is that the design was finalized in April according to the article, and it normally takes 6 month to produce a prototype, so the first prototype might have a change of flying at the end of the year.

Now, on the naval side, there hasn't been a lot of movement since we last spoke. We have some new pictures of 054A, 071 and some new 022s launching, but only this picture is kind of interesting

This is pretty much the first clear over the head shot of 054A's VLS. Doesn't seem to be cold launched, since the cells are flat vs water level. Still trying to determine where the exhaust vent is. Some people are saying it's the part between two adjacent lids. We will see.

Recent News

First, new Varyag photos


Second, new pictures of 171 returning to Shanghai for maintenance


Third, a picture of the VLS of 051C

Fourth, a picture of the second 054A in HD finally being launched, interestingly enough, no sea eagle yet

Fifth, a picture of the first 054A in HP returning from sea test


Now, in the land of the aerial assets. Recently, we have seen evidences from photo leaks, military newspaper article and magazines of the following:

• J-10 is being equipped (probably fully converted) in the 5th regiment in 2nd division
• JH-7A has been spotted in a new PLAAF regiment in possibly 5th division (13-15th regiment) located in the Shandong area.
  
• JH-7A also has been spotted in a PLANAF 14th regiment of 5th division in Jiaozhou in NSF
  
• Z-10's first production batch is getting delivered this year
• Z-8F has finally reached production level (according to this link http://www.jxgfgb.gov.cn/news/news_detail.asp?id=2423, China produced 9 Z-8 in 2005, 12 in 2006 and at least 15 in 2007)
  

054A launched

First, possibly another 054A?


Anyhow, more pictures from today.
This is the first one in the front and the newly launched one in the back

more shots from today

Some recent PLAN pictures

We have a new Varyag picture here.

A recent 054A picture, the second one in HD about to be launched.

A recent 071 picture, looks like it might be installing SAM or maybe not.

Looks like some progress have been made everywhere.

What is left for Russia to export to China?

So, with the recent IL-76 controversy, I compiled a list of things I think China still might buy from Russia.

Land Force:
Not sure really - China never did import that much in this area.

Air Defense:
So, there is another 8 S-300PMU2 battalion order. After that, there is the S-400 system and the S-300V. At this point, I think there is still possibility of another purchase toward either S-400 or S-300V, especially since China needs to develop a NMD system. How far the domestic system in HQ-9 has come in ABM capability is unknown, but I would think not as much as S-300V. Tor-M1 discussions pretty much ended for good a few months ago. Buk-M1 has never been in consideration.

Air Force:
Transport/Tanker - I still think China will eventually settle on IL-76 or one of the large Antonov transports for another order before their own large transport gets developed. Clearly, the existing IL-76s are needed to be converted into KJ-2000, so they do lack large transports. And H-6U is not really ideal as the tanker.
AAMs - can't see any future purchases here.
Ground attack munitions - again, can't see any future purchases here unless for su-30s
Fighters - I think they might go ahead with upgrading some of their existing flankers. I don't think it makes a lot of sense for them to purchase su-34/35 at this point, since the domestic J-11 projects seem to be finally bearing fruits.
Bombers - Unless it's Tu-160, I doubt there will be anything. China clearly has no interest in Tu-22M and Tu-95
Avionics - Possibly upgrading su-30 with Irbis (as mentionned in JDW a while back)
Engine - Possibly another AL-31 order after this, but it really depends on how well WS-10A is going. I think RD-93 is definitely stopping after this first 150 engine order.
Helicopter - possibly some more sales of Mi17 and Mi-26, but that's about it

Navy:
Submarines - looks like they are not interested in any more Russian subs. Amur was offered, but it seems like China is more interested in their own next generation SSK. Nuclear sub technology could be one area where China gets help from, but it's not clear how much such technology have been offered.

ASW/Torpedo - They will need more Ka-28 until Z-15 naval version or the 10 tonne helo is ready. Yu-6 finally seems to have achieved a certain level and the imported Test torpedoes seem to not be used on any of the domestic submarines. I think that's a sign of the confidence to Yu-6. Be-200 order was mentionned last year, hasn't mentionned more since, but I think it will go through, since they need a replacement for SH-5.

Destroyers/Frigates - No more orders imo, although possibly upgrading the first two Sovs to using the later versions of Moskit and shtil.

Other ships - Possibly a replenishment ship or hospital ship. But Zubr orders are going through imo.

Aircraft Carrier - some assistance on Carrier operation and parts needed + a couple of su-33s, I don't even think they will extend the order to 14.

Missiles - Not more AShM, they had problems firing klub according to a recent article I read. The Russian SAMs are not likely to get any orders since HH-9/16 seem to be standard for future Destroyers/frigates.